Economy
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Term Premium and Trsy-TIPS Breakeven
The 10yr term premium has risen, as has the 5yr TIPS-Trsy breakeven, in the wake of Mr.…
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G. Dirk Mateer Asks: “Do We Still Really Need the Bureau of Labor Statistics?”
I’d say “yes”. From RealClearPolitics: So, if the BLS job numbers are so unpredictable, and we employ so many people…
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Re-Arranging the Syllabus (Again): Barro-Gordon Moved Up
For the first time in four years, I get to teach a course on the Financial System,…
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Economic Policy Uncertainty Spikes
In the wake of Trump’s letter re: Lisa Cook: Source link
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Watch the Term Premium (10yr)
That’s Jared Bernstein’s advice, in the wake of Trump’s escalation of the war on Fed independence. Here’s…
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Confidence Drops (to above Consensus)
Conference Board Consumer Confidence at 97.4 (vs. 96.4 consensus): Figure 1: U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (FRED series…
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Zandi’s Recession Map | Econbrowser
From Newsweek today: Source: Zandi via Newsweek. Here’s a map indicating q/q AR NFP growth through July…
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Constitutional and Economic Crises: Trump’s Assaults the Fed’s Independence
This is the best guarantee that cost pressures from tariffs and mass removals will manifest in wage-price…
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Non-Essentials, and the Business Cycle
Torsten Slok provides this illuminating picture of discretionary spending (y/y), by category. A year ago, I wrote…
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Diffusion – Geographic, Indicator | Econbrowser
Mark Zandi states that a third of the country is in recession. Here’re some alternative ways of measuring the weakness…
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