Economy
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Why Friends Don’t Let Friends Define Recessions as Two Consecutive Quarters of Negative GDP Growth
That’s exactly what EJ Antoni did in “Biden’s Recession” (August 1, 2022): In terms of how we define it or…
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EJ Antoni: “factor in the millions of people missing from the labor market (don’t have jobs but are excluded from official unemployment calculation)”
That’s a plea from an X post a year ago. He presented various calculations (which are hard to replicate, because…
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Six Measures of Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Including Philadelphia Fed early benchmark, released today. Several series are below recent peaks, including the early benchmark.…
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Miran: “I don’t see any material inflation from tariffs…”
From CNN. OK. From the Pricing Lab: Source link
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Everyday Prices (Still) Going Up – and Big Mac for Me, but not for Thee
From the American Institute for Economic Research, compared to CPI, and CPI for fast food… Figure 1:…
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Wisconsin Manufacturing Employment Declines in August
From DWD release today: Figure 1: Wisconsin manufacturing employment, 000’s, s.a. (blue). Source: BLS, DWD. Manufacturing employment…
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Civilian Employment Peaked in April 2025
So too has CPS series adjusted to NFP concept, a series pushed in the wake of the…
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EJ Antoni ‘s”Sustainable” Employment Measure Is in the Red
EJ Antoni noted a year ago (Sept 6, 2024): gov’t and the gov’t-dominated healthcare sector [employment growth]..…
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One of These Is Not Like the Others – Messages from the FOMC SEP
FOMC votes to reduce the Fed funds rate by 25bps with one dissent (Stephen Miran, on loan…
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Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-September
Industrial and manufacturing production, and retail sales, all beating consensus. Nonetheless, there’s a tendency toward trending sideways. Figure 1: Nonfarm…
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