Economy
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What Other BLS Commissioners Should’ve Been Fired (But Weren’t) Using the Trump Criterion?
Here’re other prior 2 month cumulative revisions, normalized by employment (after all, the country has been growing…
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Core Inflation Nowcasts | Econbrowser
From Cleveland Fed, Goldman Sachs, plus Bloomberg consensus – generally, acceleration in the q/q annualized: Figure 1:…
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Manufacturing on the Ropes? | Econbrowser
Manufacturing employment, hours, capacity utilization down since March 2025 (pre-“Liberation Day”); manufacturing production (Fed index) flat since…
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“And you want to be my latex salesman?” (BLS edition)
I hear that Bannon is pushing Heritage Chief Economist EJ Antoni for BLS Commissioner. EJ Antoni: Source:…
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CalculatedRisk (Still) on Recession Watch
Bill McBride’s assessment here. In early April, I went on recession watch, but I’m still not yet predicting a recession…
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Even *More* Depressing Pictures from the Labor Market
You think the official BLS NFP series is worrying, consider the alternatives: Figure 1: BLS establishment nonfarm payroll (NFP) July…
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How Are Wisconsin Exports, Manufacturing Doing under Trump Trade War 2.0?
Discussed the employment numbers on WPR this morning. One question came up, which inspired this post – how’s Wisconsin doing,…
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Tariff Impact Watch – Retail Prices thru 7/26
From Cavallo et al. (Aug. 2025): Source: Cavallo, et al. (Aug 2, 2025). Some data consistent with an impact of tariffs: Figure…
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UW Now Live: “Trumponomics” and the state of the U.S. economy”
This week’s livestream featuring Menzie Chinn and Lydia Cox, moderated by Mike Knetter, is Tuesday, Aug. 5, at 7 p.m.…
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EPU and EPU-Trade Policy Uncertainty Measured
Through 8/3: Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), EPU-trade (green, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com. Trade policy uncertainty, I can see…
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