Economy

EPU and EPU-Trade Policy Uncertainty Measured

Through 8/3: Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), EPU-trade (green, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com.  Trade policy uncertainty, I can see…

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Business Cycle Indicators – A Turning Point?

Maybe, maybe not. With the employment release of Friday, here’re the pictures, first of NBER’s BCDC key indicators, and second…

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Consumers Vote on Economic Prospects

Durables consumption has experienced extreme volatility over the last 9 months (since the election). However, services and nondurables should follow…

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Agent Chaos Strikes – Multidimensionally!

Policy uncertainty through 8/1: Figure 1: EPU – trade (blue, left scale), EPU (green, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com. Source link

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Is It Seasonal Adjustment? | Econbrowser

CEA Chair Miran asserts that some of the surprise in the employment numbers is due issues of seasonality. Can we…

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Downside Surprise in Employment Levels

Tales from the Employment Situation release for July: (1) July Establishment employment change below consensus; (2) Revisions make trends slower;…

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Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Eve

Baker, Bloom and Davis and Caldara et al. measures: Figure 1: EPU-trade category (blue, left scale), and Trade Policy Uncertainty…

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Instantaneous Core Inflation Again Rising

Though not quite to February rates: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), core PCE deflator (brown), core PCE…

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CRFB CEA Watch | Econbrowser

CRFB spreadsheet here for now; to be updated. Figure 1: CBO GDP projection from January 2025 (black), implied CEA June…

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State of the Macroeconomy: GDP, Key Indicators as of 7/31

Following up on Jim’s post on the GDP release yesterday, looking at different aspects of economic activity: Quarterly Indicators First,…

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