Economy
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Economy back to growing | Econbrowser
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.0% annual rate in…
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Final Nowcast for Q2 | Econbrowser
Atlanta Fed nowcast incorporating advance economic indicators indicates 2.9% q/q AR, up from 2.4%. The news is in final sales…
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Forecasts: CEA >> IMF > WSJ
From IMF’s July World Economic Outlook, released today: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), CBO current law projection of January (tan),…
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A Quasi-Real Time Measure of the Average Effective Tariff Rate
The Yale Budget Lab regularly (’cause… Trump) updates the stated effective tariff rate. But what’s the actual effective tariff rate…
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Conference Board: Economic Confidence Up (a Little)
The Conference Board today: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved by 2.0 points in July to 97.2 (1985=100), from 95.2 in…
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Gerard Baker: “If Trump’s Tariffs Are So Bad, Where’s the Recession?”
That question was posed in the WSJ, and poses three possible answers: There are three possible answers: First, it’s too…
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What Happens If IEEPA Tariffs Are Rule Illegal?
Oral arguments before the appellate court take place this week. Suppose the tariffs invoked under IEEPA are struck down, then…
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Stay Tuned: World Trade for June
From CPB, data through May: Figure 1: World Trade Volume (blue), World Industrial Production (tan), both 2006=100., on log scale.…
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Wegovy ™ for Me, but Not for Thee (cont’d)
The just-announced trade “deal” (what’s the enforcement mechanism?) apparently covers pharmaceuticals. Where do we get most of our pharma (by…
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US Real Exports Flatlining Despite Rising RoW GDP, Depreciated Dollar
What else did you expect? Figure 1: US exports of goods and services (black, left log scale), GDPNow nowcast (light…
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