Economy
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TACO, Again! (China Edition) | Econbrowser
Not that I’m complaining. From SCMP via Bloomberg: US and China are expected to extend their tariff truce by another…
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Betting on 2.5% | Econbrowser
Kalshi today. 2.4% from GDPNow and the Bloomberg consensus. Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), GDPNow (blue open square),…
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Where Is the Administration’s Economic Forecast? A Forensic Analysis
It’s usually in the Mid-Session Review, which comes out in July. But no table of forecasts is included this year…
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Scary Picture? | Econbrowser
Some macro series. One observation does not make a trend – but still… Figure 1: Monthly GDP (black), private nonfarm…
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West Coast Port Traffic Down
Or at least Long Beach and LA: Figure 1: Inbound loaded TEU’s at Long Beach and LA ports, n.s.a. (black,…
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Nowcasts of GDP and “Core GDP”
As of today, GDP nowcasts split, but final sales to private domestic purchasers (coined “Core GDP” by Furman) consensus is…
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Signs of a Slowing Russian Economy: CBR Drops Rate 200 bp
Three weeks ago, Bofit remarks “Concerns emerge over Russia’s slowing growth”: Rosstat this week affirmed its preliminary first-quarter GDP growth…
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What Fed Funds Rate Does Trump Want?
Compared to Taylor rule, according the to the Atlanta Fed Taylor rule utility. Figure 1: Fed funds implied by Taylor…
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(Fed) Credibility Lost? Bordo-Siklos 5 Year
We see reversion in the Bordo-Siklos measure of inflation credibility back toward pre-Trump 2.0 levels. However, we’ll see if this…
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Guest Contribution: “Global shocks, institutional development, and trade restrictions: What can we learn from crises and recoveries between 1990 and 2022?”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes). This post is based on…
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