Economy
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How Resilient Is the Consumer, Really?
I see this constantly remarked upon, so I wanted to check the data. Figure 1: Consumption, 2017$ (bold black, left…
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The Stock Market and “The Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations”
Trump announces tariffs of “only” 15% on Japanese imported goods, and the market jumps. Source: TradingEconomics. Subsequent accounts note the…
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LA under Occupation: Macro Indicators for California
On June 7, President Trump federalized the California National Guard and deployed troops to LA. This followed instances of aggressively…
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GAO: “Automatic supports are most effective when they are timely, temporary, targeted, and predictable”
I think we’ll need these sooner than you think. But legislation has just been passed to disable these supports. From…
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Quick and Dirty Check on Whether Steel Prices Have Fallen
Recall CEA has asserted that imported goods prices (incl tariffs) have fallen relative to domestically produced, based on conjoining 2017…
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Bertaut, von Beschwitz and Curcuru/FRB: “The International Role of the U.S. Dollar – 2025 Edition”
FEDS note published on Friday: The role of the U.S. dollar has received renewed attention this year. A sharp rise…
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How Much Longer Can We Trust Our Economic Statistics?
The Commerce Department eliminated two advisory committees on economic statistics gathering (see Marketplace). BLS received some additional funds in March…
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Consumer Price Level – Alternatives
How’s dropping prices for everyday folks going? Figure 1: CPI all (black), CPI for food (tan), Everyday Price Index (green),…
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Why Trade Uncertainty – Illustrated
Here’re the Baker-Bloom-Davis categorical trade policy uncertainty measure and the Caldara et al. Trade Policy Uncertainty index. Why are these…
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