Economy
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EJ Antoni/Heritage: “Back from the Brink: Trump’s Economy Soars Instead of Crashing”
What’s this guy smoking? From the article (originally Wash Examiner): Many so-called experts predicted that President Trump’s economic agenda would…
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Guest Contribution: “Recession Detection Along the Anticipation-Precision Frontier”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Pascal Michaillat (UCSC). Is the U.S. economy in a…
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“Groceries” under Trump | Econbrowser
ERS predicts 2.2% increase in food-at-home prices in 2025. Figure 1: CPI food-at-home (black); ERS forecast of January (light blue…
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CEA: “Imported Goods Have Been Getting Cheaper Relative to Domestically Produced Goods”
That’s the title of a report by the Trump administration CEA earlier this month. It’s an interesting question whether this…
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EJ Antoni on the No Tariff Pass Through Thesis
From Heritage Chief Economist EJ Antoni on X: N.B.: this is an INDIRECT indicator of tariffs not being passed on…
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Thanks, Drumpf | Econbrowser
WSJ mean survey forecast relative to 2023-2024 trend. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), 2023-2024 stochastic trend (blue), WSJ July mean…
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Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Uncertainty
Policy uncertainty has remains high; does it matter for economic uncertainty? Figure 1: EPU-trade category (blue, left scale), and Trade Policy…
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Tariffs in the Data | Econbrowser
From CPI, note the CPI furniture and appliances category: Figure 1: CPI all urban (blue), CPI commodities (green), and CPI…
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Business Cycle Indicators – Industrial, Manufacturing Production, Retail Sales
Up for all three, although production essentially flat since February, and real retail sales down since March. Indicators followed by…
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WSJ July Survey: 2025 q4/q4 Growth at 1%
From WSJ July survey out today: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ July survey mean (tan), lowest/highest 10% based on…
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