Economy
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Real Time Civilian Employment past Peak?
There’s a view that civilian employment (household series) peaks before nonfarm payroll employment (establishment series). If true, then time for…
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The Age of Angst? Macro Implications
Source: NYT, July 6, 2025. The OBBB alters the path of deficits relative to current law by a substantial amount,…
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Manufacturing Employment, Hours Down | Econbrowser
So the sector overall looks like it’s in the doldrums: Figure 1: Manufacturing production (blue), value added in 2017$ (red),…
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Trade Policy Uncertainty before July 9
Measured trade policy uncertainty, from Baker, Bloom and Davis, and Caldara, Iacoviello, Molligo, Prestipino, and Raffo: Figure 1: EPU-trade category (blue,…
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Central Bank Gold Holdings | Econbrowser
A World Gold Council headline “Central bank gold buying picks up in May”. Global central banks bought a net 20t…
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Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers Nowcasts Decelerate
Atlanta Fed downgrades Q2 (GS ups from 0): Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), GDPNow of…
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Business Cycle Indicators – June Employment Release and May Monthly GDP
June NFP beats consensus on the back of education and health services employment, while private NFP surprises downside. With S&P…
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Private NFP Downside Surprise | Econbrowser
+74K vs. +110K Bloomberg consensus. My nowcast based on ADP suggested +66K. Figure 1: Private NFP, May release (black), June…
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ADP Below Consensus – What Does It Mean?
ADP private NFP change came in at -33K, vs. +99K Bloomberg consensus. It’s well known that the ADP series is…
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The Return (Again) of Supply Side Economics – CEA Edition
From CRFB on 6/25 “CEA’s Fantastical Economic Assumptions”: Source link
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