Economy
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The Return (Again) of Supply Side Economics – CEA Edition
From CRFB on 6/25 “CEA’s Fantastical Economic Assumptions”: Source link
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You Daily Reminder: Prices of Import Competing Goods Rise with Tariffed Imported Goods Prices
As per basic analysis of tariffs. Data through June 26(!). Source: Cavallo et al. June 30, 2025. Source link
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June FT-Booth Macro Survey: GDP level same as March Survey
Survey results here, FT article . GDP level more optimistic than May SPF. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth June…
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Policy Uncertainty Spikes
As of today: Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), 7 day centered moving average (red, left scale), VIX (green right…
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Nowcasts and Tracking of “Core GDP”
Various observers have argued for final sales to private domestic purchasers as the best measure of economic momentum. Nowcasts and…
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Gold: The Challenger to Dollar Reserves?
There’s not much data on individual central bank holdings of the dollar through 2023, but COFER goes through 2024Q4, and…
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CEA Unleashed! | Econbrowser
From reputable studies, that is. CEA concludes in its report on the OBBB: $1.3 to $3.7 trillion in additional offsetting…
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“That Drop in Consumer Income in May Was a False Recession Alarm”
That’s the title of an article from yesterday. Maybe, but the drop in consumption spending might be. Also, personal income…
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Dollar Decline and Incipient Inflationary Pressures
Trump has indicated his desire for a weaker dollar. It looks like he’s getting it. Figure 1: Fed broad dollar…
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GDP Nowcast Dispersion plus Slowing Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers
From GDP Q1 3rd release and nowcasts plus tracking. GDPNow is down on personal income and spending release, advanced economic…
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