Economy
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Is American Consumption too High?
The Economist asks the question, and says — in part — yes. Rebalancing the global economy is Donald Trump’s defining…
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Weekly Indicators using Data Releases thru 5/31
WEI continues to decline. Figure 1: Weekly Economic Index (blue), and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index plus 2% (tan),…
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GDPNow Bounceback (Kind of) | Econbrowser
Atlanta Fed nowcast shows 4.6% q/q AR growth in GDP. Interestingly, this does not take GDP back to pre-“Liberation Day”…
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The Roller Coaster Ride Continues … EPU through 6/1
And it doesn’t seem like it will end soon, unless … Figure 1: EPU – trade (blue, left scale), EPU (red,…
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“Trump may actually want a recession…”
That would explain a lot. He’s not very effective at much, but he is effective at setting the preconditions for…
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Global Imbalances as Global Recession EWS?
EWS = “Early Warning System”. Jamel Saadaoui has an interesting blogpost, investigating whether the median current account to GDP balance…
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Policy Uncertainty Watch
Data through yesterday, from Baker, Bloom and Davis: Figure 1: EPU – trade (blue, left scale), EPU (red, right scale).…
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Taking Economic Policy Uncertainty Seriously
EPU has risen from a 2016-2024 level of 136 to a 2025 level of 430. Ferrara and Geurin (2018) find…
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Nowcasted Equipment Investment Decelerates | Econbrowser
Why? Q2 equipment investment as implied by GDPNow of 5/30. Figure 1: Caldara et al. Trade Policy Uncertainty index (blue,…
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GDP and “Core GDP” Nowcasts
Where “core” GDP (per Furman) is final sales to private domestic purchasers. Figure 1: GDP (black), SPF May median (tan),…
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