Economy
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NABE 2025 Growth Outlook Downgraded from 1.9% (April) to 1.3% (May)
From NABE today: Here’s a comparison to other forecasts. Figure 1: GDP (black), May SPF (light blue), April WSJ (Red),…
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EJ Antoni Redefines Recession as What the American People Feel
See 0:35 in this FoxBusiness snippet in which he admits that by the 2-quarter rule-of-thumb we might end up being…
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Downgrades and CDS | Econbrowser
Bessent says Moody’s downgrade is a lagging indicator… But then the Moody’s statement itself states: We do not believe that…
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Republicans’ Economic Outlook Darken | Econbrowser
Preliminary results indicate that this development precedes “Liberation Day”: Figure 1: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers expectations for Democratic/lean…
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GDP on a Lower Trajectory – Survey of Professional Forecasters
From Survey of Professional Forecasters: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), May SPF median (light blue), February SPF median (red), GDPNow,…
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Michigan Survey Implies a Catastrophic Collapse of Fed Inflation Credibility
NY Fed survey doesn’t. Figure 1: Bordo-Siklos measure of central bank credibility, using 5 year Michigan expectations (blue). Assumes 2.45% CPI…
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Economic Sentiment Continues to Fall as Inflation Expectations Climb Further
Sentiment (prelminary) below consensus. Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned…
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Graphs from “Changes in International Economics: Do We Need to Alter Our Approach?”
New conditions, not new approaches. From my presentation (PDF) yesterday for MCFR: Source: Yale Budget Lab, accessed 4/12/2025. Additional 60%…
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Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: April Manufacturing Production and Real Retail Sales Down
Both production and sales below m/m consensus. Figure 1: Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted smoothed…
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Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-May; Manufacturing Contracts in “Liberation” Month
Industrial and manufacturing production downside surprises. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (bold blue), implied NFP from…
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