Economy
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Economic Policy Uncertainty since 1985, Impact on GDP
Monthly data, with May through the 13th. Figure 1: EPU-News, average of daily data (blue). May observation through 13th. Standard…
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Why I Think Economic Policy Uncertainty Is Likely to Stay High
The end of the China import tariff pause is about the same time as the debt ceiling x-date… Source: Bipartisan…
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*Not* Making the Planes Run on Time
What exactly has the current administration gotten us? Not lower prices (as was promised). For now, not apparently safer skies.…
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Economic Policy Uncertainty Up | Econbrowser
We should all be relieved that there’s been a 90 day pause in the tariffs on Chinese imports, but since…
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Momentum in “Core” GDP | Econbrowser
According to GDPNow of 4/8. However, GDP and final sales are both on a lower trajectory. Figure 1: GDP (bold…
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“Changes in International Economics: Do We Need to Alter Our Approach?”
I’ll be discussing this topic on Wednesday at the University of Wisconsin’s Union South (5:30), under the auspices of the…
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Business Cycle Indicators – 6 May 2025
Monthly GDP is added to key indicators followed by NBER BCDC: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES…
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Plain Vanilla 12-month ahead Recession Predictions
Probit regression recession on 10yr-3mo spread and 3 month interest rate: Figure 1: Estimated recession probability using 1986 onward sample…
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American Association of Physicians and Surgeons Opines on … Gold
For my sins, I get emails from AAPS: central banks globally are buying gold, but since 2021, foreign official purchases…
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Alternative Estimates of Output | Econbrowser
GDP is a measure of output from the spending side. A standard alternative measure is Gross Domestic Output (GDO), the…
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