Economy
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A Closer Look at Employment
Transportation and warehousing boomed. Federal government workers on leave, taking buyouts not included yet (per convention). Figure 1: Cumulative log…
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Employment and Business Cycle Indicators
Continued growth apparent, although NFP employment pertains to first half of April. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from…
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Monthly Consumption, Personal Income, Mfg/Trade Indus Sales
And other NBER BCDC indicators. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (bold blue), implied NFP from…
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Economy stumbles into 2025 | Econbrowser
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP fell at a 0.3% annual rate in…
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100 Day Marker: Economic Optics Not Great
GDPNow at -1.5% q/q AR. But final sales to domestic purchasers little changed. Figure 1: GDPNow of 4/29 (blue square),…
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A Timeline for Recession? | Econbrowser
Torsten Slok’s VTRR (Voluntary Trade Reset Recession): Source: Slok/Apollo. Torsten appends a 90% probability to recession. This is a conditional…
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Safe No More? Two Pictures
Prepping slides for macro, found these interesting correlations. First, how the strength of the dollar correlates with the Treasury 10…
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More Nowcasts | Econbrowser
As of today: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow adjusted for gold imports, 4/24 (light blue square), GS, 4/24 (red…
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Guest Contribution: “China’s Electronics Exports, Tariffs, and Relocating Production to the U.S.”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a…
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