Economy
-
Republicans Seem Near-Impervious to Economic News
From the Michigan survey (final): Figure 1: Expectations of future economic conditions for Democrats/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), for Independents…
Read More » -
Business Cycle Indicator Sit-Rep | Econbrowser
A reader asks me about my 2025H1 recession call. I don’t have one, but here’s the latest depiction of indicators…
Read More » -
Envisaging a 40% Decline in Long Beach Container Traffic
“LA County ports expect roughly 40% drop in traffic as Trump’s tariffs continue”: Figure 1: Long Beach inbound TEUs by…
Read More » -
Recession Now? The Message from (Final rev’d) Michigan Expectations vs. PMI and CISS
Updating this post, probability of recession in April is 72%. Figure 1: Estimated recession probability from probit regression on (final)…
Read More » -
Rising Expected Unit Cost Inflation Quantified
From Atlanta Fed: Figure 1: Business unit costs (blue), and consumer prices (tan), year-on-year expected change, %. Source: Atlanta Fed,…
Read More » -
Symposium: “Europe amidst Uncertainty” | Econbrowser
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at the Pyle Center, UW Madison. 1:00: Welcome and introduction Mark Copelovitch, Director of European…
Read More » -
WEO, PIIE, WSJ Forecasts | Econbrowser
The IMF is pretty upbeat on the US economy…relatively speaking. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), IMF April WEO (blue square),…
Read More » -
Nowcast vs. Nowcast: Tariff-Jumping Imports as a Factor
Goldman Sachs puts Q1 growth at 0.1% q/q AR close to adjusted GDPNow, while NY Fed indicates 2.58%. The St.…
Read More » -
Annotated Graph of SP500 and Dollar
Including “Liberation Day” and “termination”, down 15%, and 7.9% (log terms) relative to post-inauguration peaks (through 4/22 close). Figure 1:…
Read More » -
IMF, WSJ Forecasts for 2025 US Growth Revised Down
In today’s newly released IMF World Economic Outlook, 2025 Q4/Q4 growth revised down by 0.9 ppts from January. Compare against…
Read More »