Economy
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Why Aren’t You Calling? (Trump to Beijing)
From Bloomberg, “Trump Presses China to Make Tariff Offer to Calm Trade War”: “The ball is in China’s court. China…
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Wisconsin Policy Forum: “Turbulence for Wisconsin’s Export Economy”
An excellent overview is provided in this report, out today — although I’d say the title likely understates the situation…
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Event Study: “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”
I’m coming up on lecturing on Fed independence and time consistency etc. President Trump continues to provide (depressingly) many episodes…
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How’s It Going? Trump on 8/9/2024: “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods.”
Here’s a visual sit-rep on prices for Americans. Figure 1: CPI – all urban (blue), CPI food at home (green),…
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2025Q1 Stall Speed? Tracking and Betting on GDP Growth, Retail Sales Composition
GDPNow at essentially zero growth. Industrial production, retail sales (control) surprise downside. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ January survey…
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“What soaring uncertainty means for the U.S. economy”
From Cui, NBC: President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda has thrown the financial world for a loop for much of the past month.…
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Dollar Dominance No More? | Econbrowser
Steve Kamin in the FT, Goodman in the NYT, Krugman on substack, FT Editorial Board write on how Trump policy…
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What a Difference Two Weeks Makes: NABE Economists on the “Liberation Day” Effect
From NABE two days ago, responses pre- and post-“Liberation Day”: From the NABE statement: The initial April 2025 NABE Outlook…
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WSJ Survey of Economists – April 2025
The GDP outlook is down markedly. I was insufficiently pessimistic (relative to WSJ survey respondents) regarding the GDP outlook. Figure…
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Expectations Continue to Fall Off a Cliff
NY Fed future financial situation “better off” revised up, but continues decline. Figure 1: U.Michigan expectations index (blue), and NY “better…
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