Economy

Policy Uncertainty and VIX Down (from Pretty High Levels…)

Data available as of 11am CT today:   Source link

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Random Observations | Econbrowser

Inversion continues, with 10yr-3mo at same level as on 12/`6.  VIX at 45. Kalshi odds on a recession at 68%,…

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Near-Horizon Recession Probability: Estimate for April 2025

Using data through March. Figure 1: Recession probability 1 month ahead (blue). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Assumes…

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Bill McBride/Calculated Risk on “Recession Watch”

Yesterday: I’m concerned about tariff policy impacting the economy. Usually fiscal, executive and trade policy decisions wouldn’t lead to an…

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Nowcasts, 4/5 | Econbrowser

NY Fed nowcast down. Figure 1: GDP (black), GDPNow of 4/1 (red triangle), GDPNow adjusted for gold imports  (pink square),…

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Business Cycle Indicators: Employment in March

Mid-March to be specific. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (bold blue), implied NFP from preliminary…

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Has the Recession Already Started?

Even if the answer is yes, we won’t know for a long time. Here’s the odds on the recession start,…

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What a Difference a Day Makes: The Post-Obliteration Day Yield Curve

Inversion deepens (see sky blue line vs. green line): Figure 1. Treasury yield curve, %. Source: US Treasury. Over time: Figure…

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2 April 2025: An Event Study

Odds of a recession in 2025: Source: Kalshi, 2 April 2025, 8pm CT. Polymarket confirms: Source: Polymarket, 2 April 2025,…

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Further Inversion of the Treasury Yield Curve

As of close today: Figure 1. Treasury yield curve, %. Source: US Treasury.     Figure 2: 10yr-3mo Treasury term…

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