News and the Market-Implied Fed Funds Path

Ten year Treasury yield fell with the FOMC announcement, as CME contracts indicated a lower trajectory:


Here’s the CMEWatch implied Fed funds rates:

Figure 1: Effective Fed funds rate (bold black), futures as of 11/13 (sky blue inverted triangle), as of 12/12 (orange square), 12/13 (red square), 4:50pm CT, in %. Source: FRED, CME, author’s calculations.


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