Economy

2 April 2025: An Event Study

Odds of a recession in 2025:

Source: Kalshi, 2 April 2025, 8pm CT.

Polymarket confirms:

Source: Polymarket, 2 April 2025, 8pm CT.

 

The recession has been moved forward, at least in betting odds (over the past week):

Source: Kalshi, 2 April 2025, 8pm CT.

 


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