Wisconsin GDP grew at 4.2% SAAR in Q2. The 2023Q4 figure was raised 2.7% by the annual update (the corresponding figure for US GDP was 1.2%).
Figure 1: Wisconsin GDP, post-update (bold dark blue), pre-update (light blue), and Wisconsin Economic Outlook forecast for 2024 (red), in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, DoR.
As in the national update, a large portion of the revision seems to have been driven by previous undercounting of income (see this post). Here’s disposable income for Wisconsin, pre- and post-update.
Figure 1: Wisconsin total personal income, post-update (bold dark blue), pre-update (light blue), in billion $, SAAR. Source: BEA.
The gap in total personal income in 2023Q4 is 1.9%.
Note that the roughly 3% decline in Wisconsin GDP registered 2022Q4-23Q2 is deleted, replaced with a roughly 0.3% decline in 2022Q4-23Q1. Hence, the WisGOP declared recession of 2023 disappears.
Here’s a snapshot of economic indicators for Wisconsin, including updated data for GDP and wages and salaries, as well as early benchmark for NFP:
Figure 3: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark for NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), real wages and salaries, deflated by national chained CPI (light blue), GDP (red), coincident index (green), all in logs 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
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