Remember when EJ Antoni posted in X post this graph:
Well, I think a lot of the puzzle has been resolved with new population controls, and the benchmarked NFP.
Figure 1: NFP December 2024 release (blue), NFP January 2025 post-benchmark revision release (bold dark blue), household survey employment adjusted to NFP concept December 2024 release (tan), household survey employment adjusted to NFP concept incorporating smoothed population controls and reported January 2025 observation (bold dark red), all in thousands, s.a., on log scale. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS1, BLS2.
Hence the differential growth gap that EJ Antoni mentioned (for NFP vs. total civilian employment) for October 2024 of 2 million has shrunk to 0.9 million. The differential as of January 2025 is -0.063 million.
I tried to get this point to him repeatedly in the past, to no avail.
And yet, Dr. Antoni is still claiming that Biden bequeathed to Trump a terrible economy…
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