On the rise:
Figure 1: Real average earnings for production and non-supervisory workers, CPI deflated (blue), chained CPI deflated (tan), both in 2023$. Chained CPI seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (in logs). Source: BLS via FRED and author’s calculations.
It’s appropriate to ask what’s happening to the median wage. I don’t have the levels, but I have median year-on-year growth from the Atlanta Fed. Using this data, I get the following for real median wage growth:
Figure 2: Median year-on-year wage growth, adjusted by CPI (blue). Median wage growth is 3 month moving average over 12 months prior. Source: Atlanta Fed via FRED (series FRBATLWGT3MMAUMHWGO), BLS, and author’s calculations.
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