Given the results of the election, and Mr. Trump’s statement that deportations will start immediately, there will be a need for facts. I recommend EconoFact’s Immigration page as a start for your analysis.
In addition, McKibben, Hogan and Noland (2024) analyzed the economic ramifications of a couple deportation scenarios: 1.3 mn, and 8.3 mn.
Note the high scenario, with 8.3 mn deportations, implies a much bigger deviation from baseline, almost assuredly a recession if baseline is around 2 percent per annum.
To place this estimate in context, -7.5 pp of GDP was the largest (in absolute value) output gap during the Great Recession.
Note that these calculations assume deportations only of unauthorized immigrants. Project 2025 recommends (pp. 143-44):
Other structural changes should include reimplementation of the USCIS denaturalization unit” — an effort to maintain integrity in the system by identifying and prosecuting criminal and civil denaturalization cases, in combination with the Department of Justice, for aliens who obtained citizenship through fraud or other illicit means. Additionally, USCIS should create a criminal enforcement component within the agency to investigate immigration benefits fraud under Title 8 (perhaps requiring additional legislative and regulatory authorities for the officers themselves) and to prosecute cases through Special Assistant U.S. Attorneys (SAUSAs) with substantive knowledge in the field. Particular attention should be given to addressing increasing incidents of forced labor trafficking in temporary work visa programs.
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