In the wake of Trump’s musings, from Polymarket:
According to Polymarket, the contract reads:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”….
“Yes” could mean taking an island for a day, or long term occupation.
No GPRD measures after 3/3 yet. EPU through 3/7 below:
Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), 7 day centered moving average (red, left scale), VIX (teal, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com, and CBOE via FRED.
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