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Lifestyle
Have a Lovely Weekend. | Cup of Jo
What are you up to this weekend? I might see Marty Supreme tonight (have you seen it? I truly love…
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Economy
The Average Effective Tariff Rate thru October
The actual — as opposed to announced — rate has only recently exceeded 12% (source: Paweł Skrzypczyński). Expect plenty of…
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Economy
Accelerating Deterioration in Manufacturing Employment, Post-“Liberation Day”
ADP and BLS CES and QCEW data confirm: Figure 1: Change since 2025M01 in manufacturing employment from BLS (blue), from implied…
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Economy
Private NFP Change below Consensus, Previous Revisions Change Trajectory
Change in private NFP +37K < +64K Bloomberg consensus, previous months revised down 121K. Figure 1: Implied preliminary benchmark private nonfarm…
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Economy
Business Cycle Indicators: Employment Growth Slows
With the December release, we have the following picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:…
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Real Estate
How to Buy Cash-Flowing Rentals in 2026 (Despite High Rates) (Rookie Reply)
Is real estate investing still worth it? High mortgage rates and home prices can make buying a rental property seem…
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Lifestyle
Tell Me Three Things, and I’ll Recommend a Book You’ll Love
The other day, I was texting with an old friend, who told me he reads only non-fiction but wants to…
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Economy
ADP Implied Private NFP, Philly Fed Early Benchmark, etc.
In general, not good news. Using the relationship in (log) first differences implies slight gain in private NFP: Figure 1:…
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Real Estate
Rental Investors Become the Most Bullish in Years
Dave:Investors are optimistic and the market is starting to look better and better as we head into 2026. From improved…
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Lifestyle
7 New York City Hall Weddings
Have you ever walked by your local City Hall and spotted a just-married couple, all dazed and giggly? It’s such…
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