Economy

Dollar Reserves in the Wake of Trump

Have the erratic policies pursued by Mr. Trump over the past year affected dollar holdings? The answer depends. For conventional…

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Business Cycle Indicators – Final GDP, GDO, Personal Income

From the releases today: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment…

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Workers of the US: Were You Better Off in February 2026 than Today?

Average Hourly Earnings in CPI deflated 2025$: Figure 1: Average hourly wage in CPI deflated 2025$ (bold black), Using Cleveland…

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Prediction Markets on Trump Credibility Re: Reopening the Strait

From Kalshi: Source: Kalshi, accessed 4/8/2026, 4:10pm CT. Source link

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The Single Factoral Terms of Gasoline*

As of March end: Figure 1: Number of minutes worked by production and nonsupervisory workers per gallon of regular gasoline…

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March CPI Inflation Preview: Q/Q AR at 5.2% to 5.9%

Cleveland Fed nowcast m/m as of today, vs. Bloomberg consensus. The nowcast is a mechanical prediction based on reported CPI…

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Various Measures of Employment | Econbrowser

I see a lot of ebullience in the wake of the March headline NFP number. I’m not so convinced (see…

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Upward Shift: Market-Implied Path of 3 Month SOFR, Pre-War vs. Now

From Atlanta Fed, calculations as of today: Source link

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Daily Data on 5 Year Inflation Expectations

From inflation breakevens, estimated: Figure 1: 5 year Treasury-TIPS spread (blue), expected 5 year inflation from DKW (red), both in %.…

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Economic Policy Uncertainty in the Wake of “F*****’ Strait” Post

Remarkably low (considering) and high (since it’s *economic* policy): Figure 1: Economic Policy Uncertainty (blue, left scale), 7 day centered…

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