Economy
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The Employment Picture: We’d Better Hope the Powell Conjecture Is Wrong
NFP and private NFP upside surprise +64K v +50K Bloomberg, +69K v +45K Bloomberg. According to official data as well…
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Employment Declining in CA, NY
Downshift in TX. These three states account for about 27% of national NFP employment, and about 1/3 of US GDP.…
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Nonfarm payroll employment estimates through November
Goldman Sachs, ADP implied, etc. Figure 1: Change in implied benchmark revision since Janaury 2025 (bold black), Goldman Sachs 12/12…
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Did Tariffs Actually Decrease Imports in September?
Maybe, maybe not. The NYT headline blares “Tariffs Shrank Trade Deficit in September, New Data Show”. Imports did decrease from…
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Employment, Heavy Truck Sales and Cautionary Notes
Fed Chair Powell has suggested that the BLS birth-death model is overstating per month job creation by 60K since April.…
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Further Deceleration in Nowcasted “Core GDP”
Just under two months ago, GDPNow’s estimate of the contribution of final sales to private domestic purchasers (sum of consumption…
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October NFP Guesses | Econbrowser
My estimates based on ADP, JOLTS based estimate (courtesy Paweł Skrzypczyński). Delayed CES report on 12/16 (coming out with November…
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Worse than 9/11, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and Pearl Harbor…
From The Hill: “The biggest threat in history to United States National Security would be a negative…
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q-theory in a Time of AI
A staple of mid-1980’s investment modeling, q-theory was an alternative to the Keynes’ marginal efficiency of capital or Jorgenson user…
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An Insight into the Vibecession and Aggregate Statistics Divergence
I don’t have a resolution to the debate, but I have an insight, regarding per capita series…
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