Economy
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Taking Economic Policy Uncertainty Seriously
EPU has risen from a 2016-2024 level of 136 to a 2025 level of 430. Ferrara and Geurin (2018) find…
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Nowcasted Equipment Investment Decelerates | Econbrowser
Why? Q2 equipment investment as implied by GDPNow of 5/30. Figure 1: Caldara et al. Trade Policy Uncertainty index (blue,…
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GDP and “Core GDP” Nowcasts
Where “core” GDP (per Furman) is final sales to private domestic purchasers. Figure 1: GDP (black), SPF May median (tan),…
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Measured Trade Uncertainty Spikes | Econbrowser
Graph for data through 5/30 for Baker, Bloom and Davis index. Figure 1: EPU-trade category (blue, left scale), and Trade…
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Trump Predicts at Least 3% Growth
At least it’s mercifully less than the 4% that he promised last time (but 9% is more than last time)…
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Despite Upward Revisions, Sentiment Still Looks Pretty Poor
Final May figures for Michigan survey are out. As noted in the release, final figures are more positive with the…
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Business Cycle Indicators as Reported at May’s End
Consumption level is revised downward, while personal income ex transfers continues to rise. Manufacturing and trade sales rise in March.…
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Stephen Moore Critiques the CBO
Mr. Moore continues his reign of (economic) errors, now tackling the CBO’s (and JCT’s) record on predictions, in “Save us…
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What Does a Rising Long Term US Government Yield Mean?
I was thinking about this, as people were remarking on how the 30 year bond was rising. First, let’s think…
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Economic Activity: GDP, GDO, GDP+, Final Sales
As of 2nd release for 2025Q1. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDO (light blue), GDP+ based on 2022Q4 GDP (tan),…
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