Economy
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Russia: Policy Rate at 21%, Official Inflation Rate at 10% (m/m annualized)
Locking up the butter in Russia (CNN). Official inflation in October was 0.8% m/m (annualize that and it’s about 10%.…
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Natural (but Stupid) Experiments? | Econbrowser
Since the incoming administration has indicated the deportations will start on day one, I thought it of use to consider…
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Instantaneous Consumer Inflation in October
Including HICP and nowcasted PCE deflator. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023) for CPI (blue), chained CPI (red), HICP…
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Guest Contribution: “How Institutions Interact with Exchange Rates After the 2024 US Presidential Election: New High-Frequency Evidence”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California) and Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris…
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The Echo Chamber of Stupid: “Recession since 2022”
Daniel Lacalle via Zerohedge writes Professors EJ Antony and Peter St Onge recently published an excellent study, “Recession Since 2022:…
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The Return of Economic Policy Uncertainty
Not that it ever disappeared completely. But expect the EPU to rise as the tariffs start flying, and the deportations…
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Guest Contribution: “The anti-incumbent wave is real. But it’s not (really) about inflation”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Mark Copelovitch (Political Science and La Follette School, University of…
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Wisconsin Employment Rises in October
NFP and private NFP up (although below recent peaks), while civilian employment rises. Figure 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark…
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Structural Breaks in the Term Spread-GDP Growth Relationship
Following up on the examination of what the term spread predicts, here’s the slope coefficients for the term spread, in…
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What Does the Term Spread Predict? IP, GDP, Coincident Index?
It’s commonplace to correlate term spreads with future economic activity measured one way or thSo, while other. Recessions in the…
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