Economy
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More Tough Times for US Agriculture?
From NYT today “Former Farming Leaders Warn U.S. Agriculture Could Face ‘Widespread Collapse’”: While there are many reasons for increasing farm…
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Business Cycle Indicators in the Absence of 2026M1 Employment
Due to the Federal government shutdown, the employment release is going to be delayed. Here are NBER business cycle indicators,…
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EJ Antoni on Warsh Nomination: “… a great pick”
Today: “He’s definitely a great pick, probably the best of all the ones that were under consideration” said EJ Antoni,…
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Nowcasting “Core GDP” | Econbrowser
From Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs, numbers that perhaps better represent the trajectory of aggregate demand. Figure 1: Final sales…
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Pass-Through | Econbrowser
A random thought on Trump’s moves to depreciate the dollar and to implement broad and high tariffs. The dollar has…
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Import Trends: Output, Policy Uncertainty, and/or Tariffs
As i was producing some extra slides for my macro course, I generated this graph: Figure 1: Change in GDP…
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PPI Blows Past Expectations | Econbrowser
M/M PPI +0.5% vs.+ 0.2% Bloomberg consensus; m/m core PPI +0.7% vs. +0.2% consensus. Here’s instantaneous (per Eeckhout, 2023) PPI…
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Kevin Warsh on Executing Monetary Policy
A 2014 paper on this topic: Don’t ask me what it all means. I think it has an Austrian flavor,…
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Kamin & Sobel: “Termites are slowly feasting away at the foundations of the dollar’s dominance”
In the FT today: The dollar’s dominance was built on the foundation of America’s many strengths. But like termites eating…
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Confidence Tanks | Econbrowser
A one standard deviation drop is no small thing. Actual at 85.4 vs. 90.5 Bloomberg consensus, down from upwardly revised…
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