Economy
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The Five Year Inflation Breakeven at 2.66%
Up 0.26 ppts since the war’s beginning. Using Treasury and TIPS: Figure 1: 5 year Treasury-TIPS spread (blue), expected 5…
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Regular Folk Prices | Econbrowser
Courtesy of BLS, AIER, and (for nowcast) Cleveland Fed. Prepare for impact. Figure 1: CPI all urban (bold black), CPI…
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Your Morning Petroleum Price Sitrep: Brent Prompt Nears $110
Brought to you by TrumpCo: Brent prompt: Accessed 3/18/2026, 10am CT. Gasoline (all formulations) and diesel, weekly: Daily (regular) through…
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The Goods Trade Deficit Adjusted for Gold
Larger than the unadjusted, post-Liberation Day: Figure 1: Goods trade balance, (blue), adjusted for gold (red), both BOP, mn$, s.a.…
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Deployment of ARG Tripoli, Betting on Hormuz Re-Opening
As of yesterday, open sources indicate: Source: USNI, accessed 3/17/2026. The composition and capabilities of the ARG are described here.…
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Oil Futures in War | Econbrowser
Kevin Hassett noted on Face the Nation yesterday: HASSETT: …look at [oil] futures markets, which are interesting because you’ve cited…
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Miran’s Next Vote | Econbrowser
Polymarket reports betting that Stephen Miran will dissent with 98% probability, up from 89.1% on the eve of the Iran…
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The Oil and Energy Intensity of US GDP
Possibly one factor in the impact of oil shocks (although Blanchard and Gali (2007) place greater weight on greater wage…
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Instantaneous PCE Inflation with Nowcasts/Tracking
Goldman Sachs tracking ticks higher core PCE inflation for February. The Cleveland Fed’s core nowcast imply lower instantaneous inflation for…
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