Economy
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GDP Nowcasts as of 6/20
NY Fed, St. Louis Fed, GS tracking: Figure 1: GDP as reported (black), May Survey of Professional Forecasters (tan), GDPNow…
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Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Real Retail Sales – Business Cycle Indicators
With industrial production, we have the following picture of series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee focuses on: Figure 1:…
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Tariffs and Consumer Prices at High Frequency
The recent undershooting of consensus CPI and PPI has been taken to mean that tariffs have not yet had an…
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Slowdown? Business Cycle Indicator Data as of Mid-June
With SPGMI’s monthly GDP, we have the following picture of series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee focuses on: Figure…
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Has Trade Policy Uncertainty Decreased a Lot?
Yes, but only because it was so extremely high recently. Figure 1: Top panel – Economic Policy Uncertainty – trade…
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Some Basic Math on Why I Think the Recession Likelihood Is Greater than 30%
Goldman Sachs has reduced the probability of recession in the next 12 months to 30%, from 35%, and earlier 45%…
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[Repost] If You Thought Grocery Prices Were High, Wait for Mass Deportation
Eerie silence hangs over Central Coast farm fields in wake of ICE raids [Originally posted in December 16, 2024]…
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Weekly Economic Index, for Data Released through 6/7
Lewis, Mertens & Stock WEI vs Baumeister, Leiva-Leon & Sims WECI: Figure 1: Lewis, Mertens, Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue),…
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Federal Budget Deficit through May
It’s not smaller than this point in 2024: Source: CBO, Monthly Budget Review: May 2025. Source link
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