Economy

Bringing Prices Down: A Progress Report

We’re a month into Trump 2.0. We don’t have February’s prices yet, but since Trump was going to do everything…

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What — If Anything — Do Re-inverting Term Spreads Mean?

Open question – we’re not quite there yet. Figure 1: 10yr-3mo Treasury term spread (blue), and 10yr-2yr spread (red), both…

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No Recession until 2025Q4 (Assuming Reciprocal Tariffs w/Retaliation)

And CBO’s January  projection: Here’s implied GDP using the Budget Lab’s analysis, and the CBO’s current law projection: Figure 1:…

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EPU and Expected Inflation | Econbrowser

From election day, five year inflation breakeven up 33 bps; EPU up 231. What could go wrong? Figure 1: Top…

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NBC News: “USDA says it accidentally fired officials working on bird flu and is trying to rehire them”

From NBC News. I know the Trump Administration doesn’t care about ordinary people dying from malnutrition, lack of access to…

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Anthony Diercks, Daniel Soques and Jing Cynthia Wu: “Perfect Recession Indicators”

From the abstract to the paper: Define a perfect recession predictor as one that correctly predicts every recession and does…

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Policy Uncertainty in the US, Globally

as measured by Baker, Bloom and Davis’s EPU. I was in Europe, and conversations were in high gear about how…

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AP: “Trump begins firings of FAA air traffic control staff just weeks after fatal DC plane crash”

Article here. When I read this, I’m reminded: In 2015, during the Obama administration, a new safety rule was adopted…

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The Russian Economy: How Many Contingent Liabilities?

It seems like a funny question to ask given Russian government debt to GDP isn’t that large. Craig Kennedy argues…

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A Trade War Interpreted in a Blanchard IS-LM Model

I was promised an all-out trade war by Trump, and all I got was a lousy 10% tariff on China,…

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