Economy
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Vogue Magazine on Imminent Recession
From “Recession Blonde: How Economic Uncertainty Spurred the Latest Hair Color Trend”, March 17th: What is “recession blonde?” Recession blonde…
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FT-Booth Macro Survey on GDP Growth vs. Nowcasts, and Recession Start-Dates
The March FT-Booth survey is out; median q4/q4 growth for 2025 is 1.6%, down from 2.3% in the December survey (see…
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FT-Booth March Survey and the FOMC SEP: GDP’s Trajectory
The March FT-Booth survey is out; median q4/q4 growth for 2025 is 1.6%, down from 2.3% in the December survey.…
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Business Cycle Indicators NBER and Alternative, and GDPNow
Industrial and manufacturing production out today, retail sales out yesterday. Nowcasts (GDPNow as reported and accounting for gold…
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“Are we heading into a recession? Here’s what the data shows”
That’s the title of an article by Jasmine Cui for NBC, citing me, Jeffrey Frankel (formerly on the NBER BCDC),…
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Q1 GDPNow at -2.1%; accounting for gold imports guesstimate, -0.1%
That’s from today’s GDPNow release (Calculation: As of the 7 March release, the reported GDPNow was -1.6%, while adjusted was…
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The Russian Economy under (More?) Pressure
Bofit: “Economic imbalances weighing on Russia’s output growth” From Bloomberg, “Ukraine Allies Agree to Step Up Economic Pressure on Russia”.…
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Economic Policy Uncertainty at Recorded Maximum
Latest updated data, 3/16 at 1074. Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), and centered 7 day moving average (red, left…
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Recession Now? | Econbrowser
When consumer sentiment drops as precipitously as it has (see here), then one has to ask if a recession is…
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The Four Golfcart Men of the Apocalypse
In Biblical contexts, War, Death, Pestilence and Famine. Well, with the Trump administration, check, check, check, and check! War? Trump…
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