Economy
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Policy Uncertainty Remains High Despite Electronics Tariff Respite
Surprise! Source link
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Is the Michigan Economic Sentiment Index at Recession Levels? Answer: Yes!
The current reading of 50.8 is below the 73.4 average reading over NBER peak-to-trough recessions dates (1990M01-2025M03): Figure 1: University…
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Trump Blinks (For Now) | Econbrowser
From Bloomberg: President Donald Trump’s administration exempted smartphones, computers and other electronics from its so-called reciprocal tariffs, representing a major reprieve…
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Economic Policy Uncertainty Hits Record High
Even if likely to be revised, it’s still remarkable. VIX down as high yield credit spread rises. And here’s…
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Is the Michigan Survey a Fluke? Are Republicans Still Optimistic? Do Republicans See Inflation Rising?
No. Yes/No. Yes. Compare the U.Michigan survey to SF News Sentiment index and Conference Board: Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment…
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Retail Egg Prices Up, Wholesale Down for Now – Forecasts Up
The egg crisis of 2025 is not over yet — consider what happens if tariffs are put on egg imports?…
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Inflation Expectations Explode, Sentiment Collapses (U. Michigan)
Preliminary data today: Figure 1: One year inflation expectations, % (blue, left scale), and economic sentiment (tan, right scale). Trump…
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Instantaneous CPI Inflation | Econbrowser
Rates are down, but not as far down as in mid-2024. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for headline CPI (blue), core…
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Expect Drops in Interest Rates
The yield curve looks like this as of today’s close: The EHTS implies that in 6 months, the 6 month…
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“Recession” Odds | Econbrowser
Two observations: (1) market odds of a downturn have rebounded today, and (2) the odds are very similar across two…
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