Economy
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Big Data on Trump’s War on Consumers
From Alberto Cavallo in the Harvard Gazette: See the interactive in the article. More on Cavallo et al. in this…
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Not So Great Expectations: Farm Edition
The Administration is mulling a $10-14 billion bailout package for ag producers, with emphasis on soybean farmers…
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An Interesting Correlation: Heavy Truck Sales Growth as Recession Indicator
Following up on the drop in heavy truck sales in August, here’s the prediction from a simple…
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What If the Supreme Court Strikes down the IEEPA Tariffs
A lot of money is at stake. Would CBP be able to refund the monies collected (using…
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Sometimes I Think Trump Is Determined to Push the US into Recession: Heavy Truck Tariff Edition
From Bloomberg, “Trump Says US Tariffs on Heavy Truck Imports to Start Nov. 1”: Trump’s announcement is…
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Twenty Two Days in October
That’s what Kalshi estimates the shutdown duration, as of today. What do we miss from BLS if that transpires? BEA?…
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Delaying Employment Situation Release, CPI Release Next?
Is the Administration secretly happy that the employment situation release was delayed? Without inside information, one can’t…
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Business Cycle Implications from the ADP Release
My nowcast of BLS private nonfarm payroll employment was for a decreaes of 78K, but with a…
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FT-Booth GDP Forecast for 2025: 1.6%
That’s q4/q4, as noted in the survey results for September. FIgure 1: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth September…
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Nowcasting Private NFP for September
We won’t have the BLS series for private NFP as of Friday. Can we use the ADP-Stanford…
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