Economy
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States with Negative GDP, Employment Growth in 2025H1
(where I *do not* equate 2 consecutive quarters to a recession, as that’s what rookies do…): Figure 1: Annualized GDP…
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What Economists Are Against the IEEPA Tariffs? What Economists Are in Favor?
Amicus Brief, and NTU Open Letter: Signatories: Stan Veuger is Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and Visiting Lecturer…
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The Strange Cases Wherein Trump Realizes Imports Lower Prices
Egg prices are down. In part because Trump allowed egg imports. Beef steaks and ground beef prices…
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“The Closing of the American Economy: Implications and Durability”
That’s the title of my presentation at the 2025 Minnesota Economic Association annual meeting, where I had the honor of…
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Trade Policy Uncertaint Before the Latest Trump Tantrum (Reagan Quote Edition)
Apparently, in addition to halting trade negotiations with Canada, an additional 10% tariff is to be applied…
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EJ Antoni: Pro-growth Supply Side Policies Will Support High Stock Prices
See this clip, at 2:17. Over the longer term, the stock prices should equal the present discounted value of dividends,…
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CPI Release: Instantaneous Core CPI, Nowcasted Core PCE Up Relative to 2024M12
Grocery inflation slightly above September ERS forecast for 2025 y/y, furniture prices continue to (technically speaking) zoom up. Headline: Figure…
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Imagine No IEEPA Tariffs | Econbrowser
Betting is now 37% Supreme Court upholding IEEPA tariffs. Source: Kalshi, accessed 10/23/2025. What happens if the…
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Circumventing the Trump Administration’s Data Suppression: Billion $ Weather/Climate Disasters Efforts
As noted by CNN, the Trump administration’s deactivation of the website tracking climatic-related disasters has been partially…
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What If? An Equity Market Correction Like 2001
In a recent Economist article, Gita Gopinath considered the implications of a AI bust similar in magnitude…
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