Economy
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West Coast Port Traffic Down
Or at least Long Beach and LA: Figure 1: Inbound loaded TEU’s at Long Beach and LA ports, n.s.a. (black,…
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Nowcasts of GDP and “Core GDP”
As of today, GDP nowcasts split, but final sales to private domestic purchasers (coined “Core GDP” by Furman) consensus is…
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Signs of a Slowing Russian Economy: CBR Drops Rate 200 bp
Three weeks ago, Bofit remarks “Concerns emerge over Russia’s slowing growth”: Rosstat this week affirmed its preliminary first-quarter GDP growth…
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What Fed Funds Rate Does Trump Want?
Compared to Taylor rule, according the to the Atlanta Fed Taylor rule utility. Figure 1: Fed funds implied by Taylor…
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(Fed) Credibility Lost? Bordo-Siklos 5 Year
We see reversion in the Bordo-Siklos measure of inflation credibility back toward pre-Trump 2.0 levels. However, we’ll see if this…
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Guest Contribution: “Global shocks, institutional development, and trade restrictions: What can we learn from crises and recoveries between 1990 and 2022?”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes). This post is based on…
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How Resilient Is the Consumer, Really?
I see this constantly remarked upon, so I wanted to check the data. Figure 1: Consumption, 2017$ (bold black, left…
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The Stock Market and “The Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations”
Trump announces tariffs of “only” 15% on Japanese imported goods, and the market jumps. Source: TradingEconomics. Subsequent accounts note the…
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LA under Occupation: Macro Indicators for California
On June 7, President Trump federalized the California National Guard and deployed troops to LA. This followed instances of aggressively…
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GAO: “Automatic supports are most effective when they are timely, temporary, targeted, and predictable”
I think we’ll need these sooner than you think. But legislation has just been passed to disable these supports. From…
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