Economy

Alternative Estimates of Q4 Output

GDO and GDP+. Figure 1: GDP advance (bold blue), GDP+ (red), GDO estimate (green), all Q/Q annualized growth rate, calculated…

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News-Based Trade Policy Uncertainty Highest since April

So the IEEPA tariffs are gone. Now a hodge podge of indefinitely-lived tariffs lives on, with uncertainty elevated. Figure 1:…

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Confidence and Sentiment: February 2026

With the release of the Conference Board’s Confidence Index, and the SF Fed’s News Sentiment Index, we have the following…

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Business Cycle Indicators: GDP, Personal Income, Mfg & Trade Industry Sales, Consumption

NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) key variables: Figure 1: Implied NFP preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), post-benchmark NFP (bold blue),…

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Section 122 Implementation in Context

CRS via Bloomberg, various trade authorities. Mr. Trump has invoked Section 122. Here’s the actual text: Source. Other commentary on…

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On the Q4 Advance Release: GDP vs. “Core GDP” and Residential Investment

Yesterday, Jim moved the Econbrowser  Little Econ Watcher’s countenance to neutral 😐, based primarily on Q3 growth, using the methodology…

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Where’s the Balance of Payments Emergency?

Section 122, invoked to place 10% tariffs, was written primarily to address balance payments issues under fixed exchange rates. By…

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GDP continues to grow | Econbrowser

The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.4% annual rate in…

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On the Eve of the 2025Q4 Advance Release

Jim will have examination of the GDP numbers tomorrow, but here is the picture as of today, in the wake…

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Is Housing the Business Cycle (in 2026)?

Most indicators suggest growth in output, spending aggregates (while employment is trending sideways). Housing is suggested as a leading indicator…

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