Economy

Various Measures of Employment | Econbrowser

I see a lot of ebullience in the wake of the March headline NFP number. I’m not so convinced (see…

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Upward Shift: Market-Implied Path of 3 Month SOFR, Pre-War vs. Now

From Atlanta Fed, calculations as of today: Source link

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Daily Data on 5 Year Inflation Expectations

From inflation breakevens, estimated: Figure 1: 5 year Treasury-TIPS spread (blue), expected 5 year inflation from DKW (red), both in %.…

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Economic Policy Uncertainty in the Wake of “F*****’ Strait” Post

Remarkably low (considering) and high (since it’s *economic* policy): Figure 1: Economic Policy Uncertainty (blue, left scale), 7 day centered…

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Nonfarm Payroll Employment in 2026: More Volatile?

If it seems that the BLS CES nonfarm payroll employment series has looked a bit more variable than usual, you…

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Trump Credibility Measured | Econbrowser

From TruthSocial, 5AM ET:   Kalshi betting odds on number of ships through Strait of Hormuz through April 5: Source:…

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Given Projected Population, Is the Administration’s Forecast Plausible?

If one uses a simple random walk with drift estimate over the 2022Q1-2025Q3 period, the answer is yes. However, given…

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So Much Winning: Guess I Should’a Bought My Airline Ticket Five Weeks Ago

Jet fuel price, from EIA via FRED: From IATA: From a year ago through March 30, gasoline price (regular) has…

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The Troika Economic Forecast under Vought-Miran-Bessent

The President’s FY2027 budget was released yesterday, some two months late. The economic forecast, based on data available in November,…

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Manufacturing Employment and Hours | Econbrowser

ADP down while BLS up. Aggregate hours down. Figure 1: Manufacturing employment from BLS CES (blue, left log scale), from…

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