Economy
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Economic Report of the President, 2026 Out on Monday
The forecast will be the same as reported in the Budget (see here), using data from November. Hence, will be…
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Inflation in March, and a Year from Now…
CPI release and U.Michigan expectations, at 4.8% vs. Bloomberg consensus 4.2% Figure 1: Year-on-Year CPI inflation (bold black), U. Michigan…
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Republican Hopes Spring Eternal (Iran War/Economics Edition)
While Republicans/Lean Republican respondents to the U.Michigan survey don’t show a very different response to March/April economic events, they are…
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Standardized Sentiment in the Time of Trump
47.6, below consensus of 51.6, down from 53.3. Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence…
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Dollar Reserves in the Wake of Trump
Have the erratic policies pursued by Mr. Trump over the past year affected dollar holdings? The answer depends. For conventional…
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Business Cycle Indicators – Final GDP, GDO, Personal Income
From the releases today: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment…
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Workers of the US: Were You Better Off in February 2026 than Today?
Average Hourly Earnings in CPI deflated 2025$: Figure 1: Average hourly wage in CPI deflated 2025$ (bold black), Using Cleveland…
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Prediction Markets on Trump Credibility Re: Reopening the Strait
From Kalshi: Source: Kalshi, accessed 4/8/2026, 4:10pm CT. Source link
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The Single Factoral Terms of Gasoline*
As of March end: Figure 1: Number of minutes worked by production and nonsupervisory workers per gallon of regular gasoline…
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March CPI Inflation Preview: Q/Q AR at 5.2% to 5.9%
Cleveland Fed nowcast m/m as of today, vs. Bloomberg consensus. The nowcast is a mechanical prediction based on reported CPI…
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