Economy
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Industrial and Manufacturing Production and Other Business Cycle Indicators
G.17 release today shows downward movement in industrial, manufacturing production (-0.5%, -0.1% vs. Bloomberg consensus +0.1% m/m). Industrial capacity utilization…
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GDP Projections: One of These Is Not Like the Others
Adding in IMF WEO projections, as well as nowcasts/tracking: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), April Admin. (red square), April IMF…
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“Flash Talks on Iran, Oil, and OPEC” (UW Madison, Thursday, 4:30-6)
“Participants provide quick overviews of how the US’s current conflict with Iran affects energy supplies, relations in the Middle East,…
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The WEO Wartime Economic Outlook
Out today; first, the IMF’s reference scenario: This is the reference scenario, invoking a short war. Here are revisions preconflict,…
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Clifford Winston on “Where Did All the Affordable Cars Go?”
From NYT, an interactive guest essay by Clifford Winston: For generations, working- and middle-class Americans could find an inexpensive, reliable set…
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Everyday Prices Jump | Econbrowser
From AIER today: AIER’s proprietary Everyday Price Index (EPI) vaulted 2.5 percent to 307.4 in March 2026, its second-largest monthly…
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Instantaneous Inflation in March | Econbrowser
Using Cleveland Fed nowcast for PCE. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4, per Eeckhout (2023)) for PCE deflator (green), CPI quarter-on-quarter annualized…
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“U.S. to Blockade Ships Entering or Exiting Iranian Ports”
From CENTCOM: U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian…
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Detrended Consumer Sentiment | Econbrowser
Preliminary UMich sentiment was at a record low in April. However, it’s pretty clear sentiment has been on average lower…
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“U.S. Dollar Dominance in Trade Invoicing and Cross-Border Investments in SEACEN Economies
From Chapter 1, “US Dollar Dominance in the Global Economy, by Cyn-Young Park and Hiro Ito: … 3. Measuring Dollar…
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