Economy
-
Wisconsin Post-“Liberation Day” | Econbrowser
Employment and goods exports have declined. GDP flatlines in Q4. Figure 1: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment, in 000’s (blue,…
Read More » -
Aizenman, Desbordes and Saadaoui: Quantifying Trade Destruction from Bombs & Bullets vs. Taxes and Sanctions
That’s my description. From their newly released NBER Working Paper, Bilateral Conflict Risk and Trade: Military Wars, Trade Wars, and…
Read More » -
More on the Gasoline Price Outlook
Lydia De Pillis has an article in the NYT on how gasoline prices don’t move one-for-one with oil prices: Fuel…
Read More » -
Using Today’s Futures, Don’t Expect Gasoline Prices to Soon Return to Antebellum Levels*
Front month Brent futures (for June) jumped tonight. Where are gasoline prices going, conditional on those futures being predictive. Figure…
Read More » -
What Drives the Administration’s Trend GDP Forecast?
Consider this graph, comparing the Administration’s forecast to the latest WSJ forecast, and an error correction model incorporating Census population…
Read More » -
Prediction Markets on Hormuz Strait and June Brent Futures: 6:30PM ET
The optimism of Friday has been wiped away. The odds of a re-opening by May 15 down to 37%, and…
Read More » -
Irrational Exuberance in Prediction Markets?
With the recent drop in odds for Strait of Hormuz re-opening, time to examine how credible Mr. Trump’s remarks are…
Read More » -
MacParity, January 2026 | Econbrowser
Answer to Question 5 on Problem Set 4 in Public Affairs 854: Figure 1: Log relative price of Big Mac…
Read More » -
Auto Prices – Adjusting for Quality and Mix
Following up on comments to the post “Where did all the affordable cars go”, a typical new vehicle bought in…
Read More » -
1.5% m/m Ann’d: What Headline CPI Inflation Have to Be to Restore Pre-War Trend by Dec. 2026
Suppose we get a durable resumption of reopening of the Strait. Oil prices will likely stay elevated for some time…
Read More »