Economy
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“Margaret in Love and War”: An Opera Premiere
Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 7:30pm, at the Leonard Nimoy Thalia, Composer Laura Schwendinger and librettist Ginger Strand’s opera about Margaret…
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Updated April Michigan Survey Results
One year ahead inflation expectations down 10 bps, sentiment up 2 points: Figure 1: One year ahead [median] CPI inflation expectations…
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One Year Inflation Expectations: A Survey of the Latest
Up, up and away. Figure 1: One year ahead CPI inflation expectations from U.Mich. Survey of Consumers (blue), from NY…
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Fertilizer Prices in Context
A food crisis in the making. Graph from CSIS, “The Strait of Hormuz in 8 Charts” (22 April 2026). Source…
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The Oil Shock in East Asia
From the IMF’s Asia Pacific Department, a blog “Asia’s Economic Resilience Is Being Tested by the Energy Shock”, two tables…
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Five Year Inflation Expectations, April 22
Inflation break-even as of today: 2.61% Figure 1: 5 year Treasury-TIPS spread (blue), expected 5 year inflation from DKW (red), both…
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Retail Sales Surprise and Alternative Business Cycle Indicators
Nominal retail sales grew 1.7% m/m, above Bloomberg consensus of 1.4%. With the advance release of sales, and coincident index from…
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Today’s TACO Tuesday and the Markets
From Mr. Trump: Betting on reopening the Strait of Hormuz: Front month Brent futures: The forward curve still indicates backwardation…
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Gallup, U.Michigan, Conference Board Compared, Plus Morning Consult
Standardized indicators: Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by…
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How Badly Is the Russian Economy Doing?
Nobody knows. But when the official statistics show negative growth, it must be pretty bad. From the FT: Russia’s…
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