Economy
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“Recession” Odds | Econbrowser
Two observations: (1) market odds of a downturn have rebounded today, and (2) the odds are very similar across two…
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Grocery Prices Continue to Rise, as Forecast Path Steepens
From CPI release today: Figure 1: CPI for food at home (black), USDA Economic Research Service forecast from January (blue…
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Did Trump Blink? | Econbrowser
I see repeated references to this assertion. As Jason Furman points out, relative to “Liberation Day” announcement, he didn’t, insofar…
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Ten Days that Shook the Financial World … But for What?
A recap: For context, the 4/5 observation on EPU is the second highest value since 1985 (the first highest…
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Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident Index, VMT, Early Benchmark NFP
Coincident index growth slows from 4.1% m/m AR to 1.7% in February. Figure 1: Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP)…
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The Recession Start Predicted (Post-Pause)
While the odds on a recession in 2025 have dropped from 69% to 54% in the wake of Trump’s 90…
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A Real-Time US Effective Tariff Rate Measure
From Paweł Skrzypczyński, “Average effective tariff rate in the U.S.”: [This page] presents historical data on U.S. average effective tariff…
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*Micro* becomes *Macro* and Macro-Financial Interactions
Gianluca Benigno points out that large and pervasive tariffs will have macro implications that spur deleveraging and a decline in…
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Stay Tuned for Dollar Share of World FX Reserves
Miran et al. want to end exorbitant privilege and the dollar’s role as a safe asset. Figure 1: US dollar…
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The Yield Curve: Steepening *and* Inverting
The time series, for 3m10s, 2s10s, as well as 1yr-FFR spread Miller (2019) identifies as max AUROC recession predictor at…
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