Economy
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2025 Trade Deficit at 2024 Levels
Total seasonally adjusted trade deficit averaged $75.1 mn, vs. 2024 $75.3 mn. The real goods trade deficit averaged $99.8 mn…
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Business Cycle Indicators: Output Surges ahead of Employment
Industrial and manufacturing production rise, surprising on the upside: Figure 1: Implied NFP preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), post-benchmark NFP (bold…
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Output Gaps, Again | Econbrowser
Primarily from the production function approach (discussion here). Figure 1: CBO output gap, calculated using latest BEA data and February…
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SP500 CAPE at 40 | Econbrowser
September P/E ratio at 28. Figure 1: CAPE (blue), P/E ratio (light brown). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray.…
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Two Measures of Private NFP Compared
Post-benchmark revision, here are changes in the BLS and ADP series: Figure 1: Change in BLS private nonfarm payroll employment…
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Quantifying Partisanship in Perceptions of Current Economic Conditions
Democrats/Lean Democratic current conditions assessment is relative insensitive to Trump being president, and statistically significantly related to news sentiment. Republican/Lean…
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The Recent Evolution of Ground Beef and Ground Coffee Prices and Tariff Rates in the U.S.
From BLS: Figure 1: Price of Ground Beef (red, left scale), of Ground Coffee (brown, right scale), in $/lb., n.s.a.…
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CPI Inflation at 0.69% Year-on-Year, Mid-Month February(?)
According to Truflation, today: The current Cleveland CPI inflation nowcast for February is 2.38%. Source link
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CBR Reduces Rates as Measured GDP Growth Declines
As of yesterday (discussion in WSJ): CBR estimates 0.9% growth for 2025 y/y. It also estimates y/y December inflation…
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Nowcasted PCE Instantaneous Inflation Moving Away from 2% Target
Using Cleveland Fed nowcasts post-CPI release: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12,a=4) for PCE (blue), core PCE deflator (red), all in…
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