Economy
-
Donald Trump Is Unworried about the Dollar’s Value
According to Bloomerg. No doubt the USD is losing in value in nominal terms against a basket of currencies as…
Read More » -
Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index Updated to 2023!
Just published, Chinn-Ito index, available here. Normalized to [0,1], with 1 being most open, here’s the world. Here’re average values…
Read More » -
Uncertainty Drivers: Tariffs on Canada or Government Shutdown?
Economic Policy Uncertainty spikes on Sunday. Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), seven day centered moving average (red, left scale),…
Read More » -
“Trump Threatens 100% Tariffs on Canada If It Does China Deal”
That’s a title of a Bloomberg article, coming right after the Trump (temporary?) retreat on Greenland related tariffs. Economic Policy…
Read More » -
What Is Q3 Economic Output? Where Are We Going in Q4? And Other Known Unknowns
Typical reporting of overall economic output is based on the expenditure approach — that is measuring spending on final goods…
Read More » -
Guest Contribution: “The New Political Economy of U.S. Trade”
Today, we’re fortunate to have a guest contribution by Jeffry Frieden, Professor of International and Public Affairs and Political Science…
Read More » -
The Bond Market Is (So Far) Unconvinced
Trump takes military action off the table (for the nonce): Source: TradingEconomics, accessed 11am CT on 1/21/2026. The VIX has…
Read More » -
“…[last month]’s [production] print still came in negative M/M – manufacturing is in recession:
Here’s a picture: Figure 1: Manufacturing capacity utilization, % (blue, left scale), and manufacturing production index (tan, right log scale).…
Read More » -
Employment Growth Has Flatlined (If We’re Optimistic)
Official vs. Implied Preliminary, Powell conjecture to preliminary, Early Benchmark, CPS adjusted to NFP concept, and Quarterly Census of Employment…
Read More » -
How Fast Can Trump Destroy US Exorbitant Privilege?
Treasury 10 year and VIX, as of 1pm CT today: Source link
Read More »