Economy

Business Cycle Indicators – Mid-November

Industrial and manufacturing production down at consensus rate (-0.3% m/m for both). Core retail sales +0.1% vs. consensus +0.3% m/m.…

Read More »

Instantaneous Inflation Rates | Econbrowser

PPI and core PPI y/y slightly above consensus: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for CPI (bold blue), PCE deflator…

Read More »

Instantaneous Core Inflation: Various Measures

Core up, but supercore down: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), services…

Read More »

TIPS Yield, Inflation Breakeven and Dollar Rise

Consistent with expansionary fiscal policy plus tariffs hitting a non-passive Fed reaction function. Figure 1: TIPS constant maturity 5 year…

Read More »

Further Dollar Appreciation: Implications | Econbrowser

What else would one expect from expectations of expanded budget deficits, higher incipient inflation in the context of a Taylor…

Read More »

Did the Trade Balance Improve with Tariffs? Did Imports Fall? Did Ag Exports Rise?

Answers: No. No. No. Figure 1: Net exports in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR (blue, left scale), nominal as share of GDP (tan,…

Read More »

Analyses on the Impacts of Trump’s Proposed Ultimate Solution

Given the results of the election, and Mr. Trump’s statement that deportations will start immediately, there will be a need…

Read More »

The Recession Call Revisited | Econbrowser

There was a noisy minority of analysts thinking we were in, or imminently in, recession (see a list here). It’ll…

Read More »

“The Recession of 2025 Will Be Backdated” to 2022

Thet’s  Jeffrey Tucker in the Epoch Times via ZeroHedge. It’s a reasonable supposition that a recession will become obvious to…

Read More »

Debt-to-GDP under Trump 1.0 | Econbrowser

A reminder, so when next you hear about fiscal restraint. Figure 1: Debt held by the public as share of…

Read More »