Economy
-
Towards Correction? | Econbrowser
Most quick assessments of the impact of a continued US-Israel/Iran war work of reduced form responses to oil shocks. I’m…
Read More » -
Pre-War/Conflict/”Excursion” GDP, Core GDP, and Nowcasts
2025Q4 2nd release, GDPNow, and Survey of Professional Forecasters: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow (3/13) (light blue square), March…
Read More » -
Business Cycle Indicators: GDP Growth Downshifts, Consumption Slows, Downside Surprise
Q4 GDP growth halved, Q4 consumption undershoots consensus by nearly half percentage point (ann’d): Figure 1: Implied nonfarm payroll (NFP) employmennt…
Read More » -
Probability of 2 Qtr Negative Growth in 2026 at Post-Strike High
From Kalshi: My conjecture: As long as the probability of Strait of Hormuz reopening goes down, the betting odds of…
Read More » -
Uncertainty Regarding Trade Policy Remains High
Most recent data (last available Caldara et al. TPU at 3/6): Figure 1: EPU-trade (blue, left scale), TPU (red, right…
Read More » -
Betting on Recession 2026: Up to 32% fm 21% pre-War
But down from peak 37%. From Polymarket: From Kalshi over comparable period: Kalshi rises to 31.6% from 23.1% on February…
Read More » -
“How energy prices figure into the Fed’s interest rate decisions”
From MarketWatch today, Claudia Sahm and I comment. My remarks based on observation on betting. For SOFR: For Fed funds:…
Read More » -
Grocery Prices Continue to Rise
And are rising faster than in the last year under Biden. Figure 1: CPI – food at home (black), 2024…
Read More » -
Trump: “The straits are in great shape”
Brent approaches $100/bbl again, volatility keeps on rising, and Straits open end-April less than eve-odds. So prices are up, as…
Read More » -
QCEW, ADP and CPS Readings on NFP, Manufacturing Employment: Not as Rosie
We have alternative readings on employment, compared to CES series. Figure 1: Change since 2025M01 in CES Nonfarm Payroll employment…
Read More »