Economy
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Macroeconomic Implications of Premature Escalation in LA
ICE raids are concentrated in blue states, including CA, NY. These states account for about 22% of national GDP, at…
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In Case You Thought Policy Uncertainty Had Declined
Remember, we’ve got tariff *pauses* (pl.), OBBB, debt ceiling limit, etc. Do you expect the folks in the present administration…
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Michaillat-Saez Recession Indicator | Econbrowser
As noted in this post, the indicator detected a recession in March 2024, stayed above the threshold thereafter, so the…
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“First thing we do, let’s kill all the beancounters” Part 3
Part 2 was during the last Trump administration. Some things never change. From Richard Rubin in today’s WSJ: Swagel, a…
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May Employment Release: NFP above Consensus, Mfg below
+139K vs +126K Bloomberg consensus; private NFP +140K vs +110K. Manufacturing employment down 8K vs -1K consensus. But durable manufacturing…
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Re-inversion 10yr-3mo, Weakening Dollar | Econbrowser
As of June 5th, 10yr-3mo reinverts. Figure 1: 10yr-3mo Treasury spread (blue), and 10yr-2yr Treasury spread (red), both in %.…
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Is American Consumption too High?
The Economist asks the question, and says — in part — yes. Rebalancing the global economy is Donald Trump’s defining…
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Weekly Indicators using Data Releases thru 5/31
WEI continues to decline. Figure 1: Weekly Economic Index (blue), and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index plus 2% (tan),…
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GDPNow Bounceback (Kind of) | Econbrowser
Atlanta Fed nowcast shows 4.6% q/q AR growth in GDP. Interestingly, this does not take GDP back to pre-“Liberation Day”…
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The Roller Coaster Ride Continues … EPU through 6/1
And it doesn’t seem like it will end soon, unless … Figure 1: EPU – trade (blue, left scale), EPU (red,…
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