Economy
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Trade Expert EJ Antoni on Tariff Pass-Through
At min 0:29 of this clip from FoxBusiness: I suspect Antoni views these predictions as “suspicious” only…
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EconoFact: “The U.S. Agricultural Sector Under Stress”
From EconoFact today: The U.S. agricultural sector is facing multiple challenges. High input and production costs together…
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What Releases Have We Missed? What Will We Miss? And What Will Be the Impact?
Current betting on Kalshi is for a 34.5 day shutdown (5pm CT), taking us to November 3-4. At this rate,…
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ARIMA(1,1,1) in BLS Private NFP vs. ADP Based ECM
I estimated three models, 2021-2025M08, resulting in adjusted R2 of between 0.54 (based on ADP data) to…
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Betting on Shutdown at n=42.8 days
Per Kalshi, on 10/18 noon CT. At this rate, we miss Metro area Employment/Unemployment, Consumer Expenditures, Employment Cost Index, Business…
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US FX Intervention Thus Far in the Argentine Peso…
Hard to assess, since we don’t know how much was blown. Data as of noon (CT) 17…
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IMF World Economic Outlook October Forecast Out
From the report,faster growth in the world, US – but US level below pre-Trump trend: Figure 1:…
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Weekly Indicators of Economic Growth
WEI and WECI, for data releases through 10/11/2025: Figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue), and Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims…
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Some Business Cycle Observables | Econbrowser
Tomorrow, we’ll get another piece of business cycle information, in the form of industrial production, manufacturing production,…
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Irony of Ironies: Trump’s War on the Big Mac
Data suggests that Big Mac prices are far outpacing the CPI, and AIER’s Everyday Price Index. Oh,…
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