Economy
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Nonfarm Payroll Employment in 2026: More Volatile?
If it seems that the BLS CES nonfarm payroll employment series has looked a bit more variable than usual, you…
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Trump Credibility Measured | Econbrowser
From TruthSocial, 5AM ET: Kalshi betting odds on number of ships through Strait of Hormuz through April 5: Source:…
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Given Projected Population, Is the Administration’s Forecast Plausible?
If one uses a simple random walk with drift estimate over the 2022Q1-2025Q3 period, the answer is yes. However, given…
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So Much Winning: Guess I Should’a Bought My Airline Ticket Five Weeks Ago
Jet fuel price, from EIA via FRED: From IATA: From a year ago through March 30, gasoline price (regular) has…
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The Troika Economic Forecast under Vought-Miran-Bessent
The President’s FY2027 budget was released yesterday, some two months late. The economic forecast, based on data available in November,…
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Manufacturing Employment and Hours | Econbrowser
ADP down while BLS up. Aggregate hours down. Figure 1: Manufacturing employment from BLS CES (blue, left log scale), from…
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First Readings on March Data, and Business Cycle Indicators
BLS and ADP data are among the first measurements of economic activity in March, after the war’s start. Figure 1: Nonfarm…
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Nowcast, Tracking of Private Domestic Final Demand (aka “core GDP”)
From Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs, today: Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), 2023-24 stochastic trend…
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Business Cycle Indicators – Data before the War
Monthly GDP, retail sales, ADP employment, freight services index… NBER BCDC key measures: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment preliminary benchmark…
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Anticipating April 10 (March CPI Release)
Cleveland Fed CPI nowcast indicates 0.84% m/m increase in March, based on weekly gasoline and daily oil prices. Figure 1:…
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