Economy
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Business Cycle Indicators: The Slowdown Cometh?
Personal income, consumption both down in May, with today’s release. Industrial production, civilian employment in NFP concept down from previous…
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Manufacturing Value Added Flat | Econbrowser
So much for a manufacturing renaissance, post-“Liberation Day”. Figure 1: Manufacturing production (blue), value added in 2017$ (red), employment (tan),…
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Bob McCauley: “Downgrading Uncle Sam, not America”
In McCauley’s VoxEU post (first of three), he presents a pictorial depiction of exorbitant privilege: As McCauley notes: While the…
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GDP Nowcasts as of 6/20
NY Fed, St. Louis Fed, GS tracking: Figure 1: GDP as reported (black), May Survey of Professional Forecasters (tan), GDPNow…
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Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Real Retail Sales – Business Cycle Indicators
With industrial production, we have the following picture of series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee focuses on: Figure 1:…
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Tariffs and Consumer Prices at High Frequency
The recent undershooting of consensus CPI and PPI has been taken to mean that tariffs have not yet had an…
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Slowdown? Business Cycle Indicator Data as of Mid-June
With SPGMI’s monthly GDP, we have the following picture of series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee focuses on: Figure…
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Has Trade Policy Uncertainty Decreased a Lot?
Yes, but only because it was so extremely high recently. Figure 1: Top panel – Economic Policy Uncertainty – trade…
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Some Basic Math on Why I Think the Recession Likelihood Is Greater than 30%
Goldman Sachs has reduced the probability of recession in the next 12 months to 30%, from 35%, and earlier 45%…
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