Economy
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SP500 CAPE at 40 | Econbrowser
September P/E ratio at 28. Figure 1: CAPE (blue), P/E ratio (light brown). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray.…
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Two Measures of Private NFP Compared
Post-benchmark revision, here are changes in the BLS and ADP series: Figure 1: Change in BLS private nonfarm payroll employment…
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Quantifying Partisanship in Perceptions of Current Economic Conditions
Democrats/Lean Democratic current conditions assessment is relative insensitive to Trump being president, and statistically significantly related to news sentiment. Republican/Lean…
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The Recent Evolution of Ground Beef and Ground Coffee Prices and Tariff Rates in the U.S.
From BLS: Figure 1: Price of Ground Beef (red, left scale), of Ground Coffee (brown, right scale), in $/lb., n.s.a.…
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CPI Inflation at 0.69% Year-on-Year, Mid-Month February(?)
According to Truflation, today: The current Cleveland CPI inflation nowcast for February is 2.38%. Source link
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CBR Reduces Rates as Measured GDP Growth Declines
As of yesterday (discussion in WSJ): CBR estimates 0.9% growth for 2025 y/y. It also estimates y/y December inflation…
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Nowcasted PCE Instantaneous Inflation Moving Away from 2% Target
Using Cleveland Fed nowcasts post-CPI release: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12,a=4) for PCE (blue), core PCE deflator (red), all in…
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Core CPI at Consensus | Econbrowser
And headline CPI was below. Here’re price levels for several CPI components: Figure 1: CPI (bold black), CPI food at…
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Ten Days to 2025Q4 Advance Release: Nowcasts, Forecasts
GDPNow shows fast growth… Figure 1: GDP (bold black), CBO projection (tan), WSJ mean (green), GDPNow of 2/11 (light blue…
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“Liberation Day” Interpreted through the Lens of the Benchmark Revision
Pawel Skrzypczyński sends me the link to this graph: Noting that, post-benchmark, things look even worse after “Liberation Day” —…
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