Economy
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Irrational Exuberance in Prediction Markets?
With the recent drop in odds for Strait of Hormuz re-opening, time to examine how credible Mr. Trump’s remarks are…
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MacParity, January 2026 | Econbrowser
Answer to Question 5 on Problem Set 4 in Public Affairs 854: Figure 1: Log relative price of Big Mac…
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Auto Prices – Adjusting for Quality and Mix
Following up on comments to the post “Where did all the affordable cars go”, a typical new vehicle bought in…
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1.5% m/m Ann’d: What Headline CPI Inflation Have to Be to Restore Pre-War Trend by Dec. 2026
Suppose we get a durable resumption of reopening of the Strait. Oil prices will likely stay elevated for some time…
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Industrial and Manufacturing Production and Other Business Cycle Indicators
G.17 release today shows downward movement in industrial, manufacturing production (-0.5%, -0.1% vs. Bloomberg consensus +0.1% m/m). Industrial capacity utilization…
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GDP Projections: One of These Is Not Like the Others
Adding in IMF WEO projections, as well as nowcasts/tracking: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), April Admin. (red square), April IMF…
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“Flash Talks on Iran, Oil, and OPEC” (UW Madison, Thursday, 4:30-6)
“Participants provide quick overviews of how the US’s current conflict with Iran affects energy supplies, relations in the Middle East,…
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The WEO Wartime Economic Outlook
Out today; first, the IMF’s reference scenario: This is the reference scenario, invoking a short war. Here are revisions preconflict,…
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Clifford Winston on “Where Did All the Affordable Cars Go?”
From NYT, an interactive guest essay by Clifford Winston: For generations, working- and middle-class Americans could find an inexpensive, reliable set…
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Everyday Prices Jump | Econbrowser
From AIER today: AIER’s proprietary Everyday Price Index (EPI) vaulted 2.5 percent to 307.4 in March 2026, its second-largest monthly…
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