Economy
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Gold and FX Reserves in 2025Q1
Based on IMF data (COFER, IFS): Figure 1: USD shares of fx (blue bars), EUR (tan), all other (gray). USD(EUR)…
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Core Inflation Nowcasted to Rise in June, July
From Cleveland Fed today: Figure 1: Year on year core CPI inflation (blue), core PCE (tan), Bloomberg consensus of 7/11…
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June Alternative Indicators Down from Peak
Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept, manufacturing production, real retail sales, ADP’s private NFP, and BTS freight services index. The…
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Effective Tariff Rates *before* Copper & Brazil
From Yale Budget Lab: Source: Yale Budget Lab, accessed 10 July 2025. Source link
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Copper, Bolsonaro (Coffee): Predict Trade Policy Uncertainty for 7/10
Here’s the data through 7/9: Figure 1: EPU-trade category (blue, left scale), and Trade Policy Uncertainty index (red, right scale).…
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GDP Impact of 87.5K Removals/Yr
From Orrenius et al. (2025), GDP growth is down 0.81% in 2026, 0.49% in 2027. These estimates based on a…
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When “Liberation Day” Replaces “Infrastructure Week” Replaces “Groundhog Day” ™…
Trump on TruthSocial (Bloomberg): “TARIFFS WILL START BEING PAID ON AUGUST 1, 2025. There has been no change to this…
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Business Fixed Investment ex-IIP and Policy Uncertainty
A picture (or two) is worth a thousand words: Figure 1: Sum of nonresidential equipment and structures investment, bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR…
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Real Time Civilian Employment past Peak?
There’s a view that civilian employment (household series) peaks before nonfarm payroll employment (establishment series). If true, then time for…
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The Age of Angst? Macro Implications
Source: NYT, July 6, 2025. The OBBB alters the path of deficits relative to current law by a substantial amount,…
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