The egg crisis of 2025 is not over yet — consider what happens if tariffs are put on egg imports?
Figure 1: Price of dozen eggs, retail, $ (blue, left log scale), ERS forecast of February (light blue inverted triangle), ERS forecast of March (blue square), PPI for large eggs n.s.a. (brown, right log scale), TradingEconomics implied forecast of 4/11/2025 (light brown square, right log scale). Source: BLS, USDA ERS, TradingEconomics and author’s calculations.
The ERS forecasts are based on time series models without judgmental adds, so does not incorporate the potential impact of tariffs. TradingEconomics is a partly judgmental forecast.
The elevated level of egg imports is part of a Trump administration plan to lower egg prices. So…imports help lower prices of eggs, but otherwise are not good for prices of consumer goods overall. Hmm.
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