Polymarket reports betting that Stephen Miran will dissent with 98% probability, up from 89.1% on the eve of the Iran war. To me, the interesting question is not whether he dissents, but how he justifies his vote (does he still believe that r* has declined?).
Presumably, he’s stayed at a 50 bps cut, while the FOMC as a whole has been assessed by the market as moving more to holding still at no cut.
Source link
