Economy
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Business Cycle Indicators: Industrial Production, Implied Employment, Alternatives
November ADP data allows us to guesstimate nonfarm payroll employment, while the Fed’s data for industrial and manufacturing production in…
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ADP Downside Surprise | Econbrowser
ADP private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment down -32K vs. +5K Bloomberg consensus. Mfg employment down 6K. Figure 1: ADP private…
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Consensus vs. ARIMA(1,1,1): ADP Private Nonfarm Payroll
Bloomberg consensus is +7K for ADP release. Figure 1: ADP private nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), ARIMA(1,1,1)…
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Recession with Decreasing Employment and Increasing GDP?
Employment seems to be growing very slowly, if not shrinking, while output (measured with lots of noise) seems to be…
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US Naval Deployment, December 1, 2025
From USNI: Source: USNI, accessed 12/1/2025. Source link
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Alles ist verloren…
一切都結束了, 所有都失去咗 or whatever language you want to put it in. As of 8pm CT today: Just a reminder: Kevin “Dow…
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Private Credit, AI, and Financial Stability
Private credit, lending from nonbank financial intermediaries (NBFIs), has been on the rise: Source: Fillat et al. (2025), FRB Boston.…
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ADP Weekly Employment thru 11/8
From ADP via Paweł Skrzypczyński: Recall that the ADP report does not include government jobs. Source link
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Small Firm Employment Falls Again
Private NFP continues to be sustained by large firm hiring. Figure 1: Change in employment from May 2025…
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High Frequency Readings on Economic Growth
Growth has decelerated by about half a percentage point since Liberation Day. Figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic…
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