Economy
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Economic Policy Uncertainty, Financial Risk, Geopolitical Risk, Expected Inflation and Oil Volatility
EPU, VIX and GPR: Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), 7 day centered moving average (bold red, left scale), VIX…
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OBE: “Five Important Reasons Why the Trump Economy Is About To Really Blast Off”
From EJ Antoni (first published two weeks ago): First, 2025 was a year of transition for the economy. Under Democrat…
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Hamilton Net Oil Price (Brent)
Using NYMEX futures for May, June: Figure 1: Net Oil Price (Brent), defined relative to previous year (blue), defined relative…
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Seems Plausible: Recession in 2026
Polymarket, using definition of 2 quarters of consecutive negative GDP growth OR NBER declaration. It was only 23% on February…
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Uncertainty, Risk, Boots on the Ground?
In the wake of Trump’s musings, from Polymarket: According to Polymarket, the contract reads: This market will resolve to “Yes”…
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Market Expectations of Inflation | Econbrowser
From Friday’s breakeven (5 year Treasury-TIPS): Figure 1: 5 year Treasury-TIPS spread (blue), DKW expected inflation (tan), both in…
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So Tired of Winning: Gasoline Prices Today
From GasBuddy at 10:45am CT: Kalshi puts end-March price at $4.00, down from $4.10. Source link
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Strait of Hormuz De Facto Closure
Polymarket (8pm CT 3/6) reads 97% probability of closure by 3/31, as defined by the contract as an 80% reduction…
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Alternative Business Cycle Indictors | Econbrowser
Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept is diving (after retroactive application of 2026 population controls to January 2026 data), as…
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