Economy
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WSJ Economic Survey: Downside Risk in GDP
While the mean forecast is for around 2.2% growth in 2026 (see this post), the trimmed 20% band suggests some…
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WSJ Economic Survey: The GDP Trajectory
Compared against CBO, GS tracking: Figure 1: Reported GDP (bold black), WSJ mean (red), CBO projection (tan), and GS tracking…
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Economic Consequences of IEEPA Tariff Strikedown
In Trump 2.0, most tariffs were imposed under IEEPA. With the Supreme Court perceived to be on the verge of…
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Real Retail Sales and the Business Cycle
From X today: Nov retail sales came in hot at +0.6% M/M and +3.3% Y/Y, beating expectations and above inflation,…
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Groceries Rose 9% m/m (annualized) in December
Reported hits the September USDA Economic Research Service forecast. Figure 1 displays the food-at-home component of the CPI, along with…
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Bond Yields and Dollar and Odds on Powell
Responses to DoJ probe: An event study. Source: TradingEconomics, accessed 1/13 1pm CT. The ten year yield rose in response,…
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“Talking Heads Are Missing Labor Market Strength”: Heritage Chief Economist
From EJ Antoni in TownHall today: …native-born employment rose by more than two million in 2025, while the number of…
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Wide Dispersion in Nowcasts and Tracking
GDPNow for Q4 at 5.1% is considerably higher than Goldman Sachs at 3.1%, and St. Louis Fed at essentially zero.…
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Six Measures of Nonfarm Payroll Employment: All Below Peak
From CES, CPS, QCEW, Philly Fed, and from ADP: Figure 1: Cumulative change in nonfarm payroll employment from BLS CES-official…
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Change in Federal Debt Held by the Public, Trump 1.0, 2.0, and Biden
The graph says it all. Figure 1: Federal debt held by the public, trn $, end-of-period (blue, left log scale),…
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