Economy
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Egg Prices in January — $4.95/Dozen Grade A, Large
Outpacing ERS forecast. Implied futures suggest higher prices yet. Figure 1: Top panel – Consumer Price of Dozen Eggs (blue, left…
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Egg Prices – A Continued Upward March?
Tomorrow, we’ll get a reading on January egg prices at the consumer level. With futures prices at about $5.2 in…
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Year-Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations in January: 3%-3.3%
From Michigan, NY Fed, and Atlanta Fed SoFIE: Figure 1: Year-on-Year CPI inflation (bold black), Cleveland y/y nowcast as of…
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Business Cycle Indicators, with Monthly GDP and Household Employment Research Series
S&P Global Market Intelligence has put up monthly GDP through December. Here’s a picture of NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee…
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Inflation Expectations, by Party | Econbrowser
The Michigan survey of Consumers revealed that Republican respondents expected one year inflation to be zero as of January 2025.…
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EPU after Reciprocal Tariffs Announced, Before New Steel, Aluminum Tariffs
Up, up and away. Figure 1: EPU (green, right scale), 7 day centered moving average Economic Policy Uncertainty (brown, right scale),…
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One Year Inflation Expectations Upside Surprise
Michigan 1 year expectations at 4.3% vs 3.3% Bloomberg consensus. Figure 1: Year-on-Year CPI inflation (bold black), one year ahead…
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Ante-mutua portoriis EPU | Econbrowser
…or I wonder how “reciprocal tariffs” will affect economic policy uncertainty measures. Figure 1: EPU (green, right scale), 7 day…
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Business Cycle Indicators with January Employment
Change in NFP below consensus, but previous months upwardly revised. Big benchmark revision (-610 thousand), but even larger — 2…
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Reported Civilian Employment Jumps 2.4 Million (1.5%)
I.e., Beware the footnotes. New population controls results in updated 2024 employment figures (but 2023 not updated). Much of the…
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