Economy
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Core CPI at Consensus | Econbrowser
And headline CPI was below. Here’re price levels for several CPI components: Figure 1: CPI (bold black), CPI food at…
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Ten Days to 2025Q4 Advance Release: Nowcasts, Forecasts
GDPNow shows fast growth… Figure 1: GDP (bold black), CBO projection (tan), WSJ mean (green), GDPNow of 2/11 (light blue…
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“Liberation Day” Interpreted through the Lens of the Benchmark Revision
Pawel Skrzypczyński sends me the link to this graph: Noting that, post-benchmark, things look even worse after “Liberation Day” —…
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Heritage Chief Economist Interprets Biden vs. Trump Employment Trends
EJ Antoni mangles the data: Given sampling error, it really doesn’t make sense to look at one month’s m/m change…
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Business Cycle Indicators | Econbrowser
NBER BCDC indicators and alternatives: Figure 1: Implied NFP preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), post-benchmark NFP (bold blue), civilian employment with…
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A Levels Perspective on the Employment Situation Release
From today’s release, +133K v +66K Bloomberg consensus on NFP: Figure 1: Reported (post-benchmark) nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), pre-benchmark…
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Households under Debt Stress: Two Pictures
From Bloomberg: Auto ABS prices, from Fitch: Source link
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Miran: No “…material inflation from tariffs.”
From CNBC: “I’m clearly in the minority in not being concerned about inflation from tariffs,” he said on CNBC’s “Money…
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Announced Job Layoffs Attributed to AI
In the Challenger, Gray and Christmas report for January is an interesting table, reporting the job losses attributed to each…
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Is Accelerating Inflation Just around the Corner?
Households say yes (preliminary), while Wall Street economists says no: Figure 1: Year-on-Year CPI inflation (bold black), U.Michigan February survey…
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