Economy
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Inflation Breakevens, Term Spreads Up pre-FOMC
As of yesterday COB: Figure 1: Ten year breakeven (blue), five year breakeven (red), in %. Source: Treasury via FRED.…
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Everyday Price Inflation at 0.3% y/y?
Versus 2.4% for the CPI (in logs). Lots of people think the government’s statistics understates the true inflation rate. It…
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Some Last Pictures: Trade War 2.0
Impact on a typical family: Source: Brendan Duke, CAP. From McKibben, Hogan, Noland (2024), cost to US economy from 10%…
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Farmers of the Nation, Unite! You Have Nothing to Lose but Possible Retaliation against Soybeans and Corn
From the National Corn Growers Association: U.S. soybeans and corn are prime targets for tariffs. As the top two export…
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Recession after the Election? | Econbrowser
Charles Payne joins the recession camp. Current indicators are not very supportive of an imminent recession: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP)…
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Prediction Markets Moving on “News” (on One Poll)
Apparently, one poll in Iowa has moved PredictIt. Harris v Trump, 52-53 now flipped to 57-50. Both markets accessed 7:05pm…
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UMich Sentiment Catching Up with the (Good Economic) News?
From TradingEconomics on 10/25: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised higher to 70.5 in October…
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Business Cycle Indicators as of November’s Start
Employment for October and monthly GDP for September, in the set of variables followed by the NBER’s BCDC: Figure 1: Nonfarm…
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The Employment Release: Downside Surprise, Signifying?
NFP +12K vs. consensus +106K, private NFP -28K vs. +90K; but wage growth (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) and average weekly…
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Prediction Markets, FWIW | Econbrowser
Reversion, seen over the past month. Why? Unclear given small movements in swing state polls. I would expect these odds…
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