Economy
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“Trump may actually want a recession…”
That would explain a lot. He’s not very effective at much, but he is effective at setting the preconditions for…
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Global Imbalances as Global Recession EWS?
EWS = “Early Warning System”. Jamel Saadaoui has an interesting blogpost, investigating whether the median current account to GDP balance…
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Policy Uncertainty Watch
Data through yesterday, from Baker, Bloom and Davis: Figure 1: EPU – trade (blue, left scale), EPU (red, right scale).…
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Taking Economic Policy Uncertainty Seriously
EPU has risen from a 2016-2024 level of 136 to a 2025 level of 430. Ferrara and Geurin (2018) find…
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Nowcasted Equipment Investment Decelerates | Econbrowser
Why? Q2 equipment investment as implied by GDPNow of 5/30. Figure 1: Caldara et al. Trade Policy Uncertainty index (blue,…
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GDP and “Core GDP” Nowcasts
Where “core” GDP (per Furman) is final sales to private domestic purchasers. Figure 1: GDP (black), SPF May median (tan),…
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Measured Trade Uncertainty Spikes | Econbrowser
Graph for data through 5/30 for Baker, Bloom and Davis index. Figure 1: EPU-trade category (blue, left scale), and Trade…
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Trump Predicts at Least 3% Growth
At least it’s mercifully less than the 4% that he promised last time (but 9% is more than last time)…
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Despite Upward Revisions, Sentiment Still Looks Pretty Poor
Final May figures for Michigan survey are out. As noted in the release, final figures are more positive with the…
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Business Cycle Indicators as Reported at May’s End
Consumption level is revised downward, while personal income ex transfers continues to rise. Manufacturing and trade sales rise in March.…
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