Economy
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Famous Last Words: “get your own oil”
Well, it’s a pretty integrated world market for oil…up to date data for front month futures: Notes: Brent (blue), WTI…
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Confidence Surprises Upside (Slightly) | Econbrowser
The Conference Board’s Confidence Index at 91.8, up from downwardly revised 91.0 in February, beating Bloomberg consensus of 88. Figure…
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Guest Contribution: “Oil Shocks Raise Recession Odds and Inflation Risks”
Today we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Rashad Ahmed (Andersen Institute for Finance and Economics).…
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How Much Will Reported Confidence Decline in March?
The Conference Board estimate of consumer confidence comes out tomorrow. Here’s some guesses on how bad it’ll be. Figure 1:…
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113 Years of the Real Oil Price (WTI)
Tyler Godspeed (former acting CEA Chair Trump 1.0; chief economist ExxonMobil) observes that shocks as determinants of recessions means they…
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What’s the Plan? | Econbrowser
I see currently betting on US troops in Iran by April 30th at 70% (a high of 72% earlier today),…
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Five Year US Treasury CDS
In case you were wondering: Source: worldgovernmentbonds.com, accessed 3/27/2026. Source link
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Sentiment Dives to Near “Liberation Day” Levels
Final U.Michigan sentiment at 53.3, down from preliminary 55.5 reading. Expectations down 2.4 pts from preliminary. Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic…
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