Economy
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Some Business Cycle Observables | Econbrowser
Tomorrow, we’ll get another piece of business cycle information, in the form of industrial production, manufacturing production,…
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Irony of Ironies: Trump’s War on the Big Mac
Data suggests that Big Mac prices are far outpacing the CPI, and AIER’s Everyday Price Index. Oh,…
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Policy Uncertainty during the Shutdown: Elevated
Daily data from Baker, Bloom and Davis: Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), EPU-trade (green, right scale).…
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FX and Gold Reserves in Q2
COFER data is out for Q2. With estimated gold held by the central banks, we have this…
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How Much Will We Lose Lending to Argentina?
The $20 billion swap announced by Bessent (not on US Treasury website as far as I can…
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WSJ Survey: Below Trend Growth
Out today: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ mean (blue), WSJ +/- 20% bounds (gray), GDPNow of…
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Why a Missed Release Is Sometimes Problematic
When the economy is growing in a steady manner, a missed release is not a problem. But…
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Flying Blind, Graphically Illustrated | Econbrowser
Here’re key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, with indications of measures already missed…
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On Immigration Policies and the Ag Sector
An assessment of how current Administration polices regarding immigration and removals are affecting the agricultural sector (October 2): Agricultural employers,…
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EJ Antoni: Back to Smearing Data Sources
Antoni on X: The reason that UMich’s fake inflation expectation data can sometimes rise when all 3 components (R’s, D’s,…
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