Economy
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0.68%: Truflation Y/Y CPI Inflation Rate as of 8 February 2026
The Cleveland Fed nowcast for February 2026 as of today is 2.34%. Figure 1: Year-on-Year headline CPI inflation (bold blue),…
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What Could Go Wrong? The AI Asset Price and Investment Boom
Last semester, teaching the Financial System, I laid out three things that worried me: Crypto & stablecoins, private credit, and…
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The Layoff Announcement-Labor Force Ratio and Recessions, 1989-2025
Using Challenger, Gray, Christmas data at quarterly frequency, normalized by civilian labor force. Figure 1: Challenger layoff announcements to civilian…
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Nowcasting January Private NFP | Econbrowser
BLS will release (w/delay) on Wednesday. Until then, we have ADP (which underwent benchmarking). Using ADP data (2022M01-2025M12) to extrapolate…
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USDA Forecasts Near Constant Farm Cash Income…As Long as We Dole Out $44.3 Billion
From USDA on Thursday: Overall, farm cash receipts are forecast to decrease by $14.2 billion (2.7 percent) from 2025 to…
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Layoff Announcements: Do they Lead Actual Layoffs?
Challenger, Gray and Christmas had a startling headline: “January Job Cuts Surge; Lowest January Hiring on Record”. Source: Challenger, Gray…
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Official GDP vs. Alternatives: China
Bank of Finland’s BOFIT concludes: China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports fourth-quarter growth of the Chinese economy slowed to…
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Truflation Chief Economist: “Less Than 1 Percent Inflation? Yes.”
From Townhall today: As of today, y/y CPI inflation is 0.93%! Source: Truflation, accessed 2/4/2026 3pm CT. For comparison, a…
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“When Tariffs Hit Home” | Econbrowser
That’s the title of my “No Jargon” podcast on the Scholars Strategy Network, posted yesterday. I talk about “the biggest…
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