Economy
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“Geopolitics becoming ‘key risk’ for central banks – panel”
Central Banking news account from the conference The ECB and Its Watchers, on Wednesday: Bank of Finland governor Olli Rehn,…
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The Administration Campaign to Push Down the Fed Funds Rate: “Computer Says ‘No'”
From the Atlanta Fed Market Probability Tracker: Source: Atlanta Fed, 26 March 2026. Source: Atlanta Fed, 26 March 2026.…
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The Year (and 2 months) of Living Dangerously
Economic Policy Uncertainty (US, Global), Trade Policy Uncertainty, GeoPolitical Risk, Stock Market, and (now) Oil Volatility all enhanced from January…
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Random Question: How Many People Won as the US/Europeans in this Game?
“Oil War” – seize the oil fields before they’re blown up. I can’t recall precisely, but I have a feeling…
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“The ECB and Its Watchers XXVI”
Today, at Goethe University, from the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability: 🔹 Opening remarks by Volker Wieland🔹 President’s…
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Dollar Dominance in Central Bank Reserves
Talking about the dollar, Trump, and stupidity as an exogenous variable, next couple of days… Figure 1: Share of total…
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Nowcasts and Forecasts | Econbrowser
Nowcasts are typically below pre-war forecasts. Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), March SPF (teal), Goldman Sachs tracking (light…
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Recession Probabilities: All around 30%-35%
From WSJ, recession within the next 12 months: Figure 1: Mean probability of recession within the next 12 months, WSJ…
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SOFR Path Change Relative to 2/27
From the Atlanta Fed’s Market Probability Tracker, today: Source link
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