Economy
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Wisconsin Manufacturing Employment and Goods Exports under Trump 2.0
Real exports, Manufacturing employment both down relative to 2024M12. Figure 1: Wisconsin manufacturing employment, 000’s (blue, left log scale), Wisconsin…
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The Average Effective Tariff Rate thru October
The actual — as opposed to announced — rate has only recently exceeded 12% (source: Paweł Skrzypczyński). Expect plenty of…
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Accelerating Deterioration in Manufacturing Employment, Post-“Liberation Day”
ADP and BLS CES and QCEW data confirm: Figure 1: Change since 2025M01 in manufacturing employment from BLS (blue), from implied…
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Private NFP Change below Consensus, Previous Revisions Change Trajectory
Change in private NFP +37K < +64K Bloomberg consensus, previous months revised down 121K. Figure 1: Implied preliminary benchmark private nonfarm…
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Business Cycle Indicators: Employment Growth Slows
With the December release, we have the following picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:…
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ADP Implied Private NFP, Philly Fed Early Benchmark, etc.
In general, not good news. Using the relationship in (log) first differences implies slight gain in private NFP: Figure 1:…
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ADP Private NFP Employment below Consensus, Large Firm Flat, Mfg Down
Briefly: Figure 1: Change since January 2025 in private nonfarm payroll employment, BLS official (blue), implied preliminary benchmark BLS private…
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Nowcasting Core GDP | Econbrowser
Further deceleration. Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), Nov SPF (tan), GDPNow of 1/5 (light blue…
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Auto Loans Further Deteriorate
Year-on-Year, through November. From Fitch: Source: Fitch, accessed 1/5/2025. Auto loan recovery rates also decline. Source link
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Russian GDP in Question | Econbrowser
Official statistics suggest the country is below recent business cycle peak. Figure 1: Russian real GDP, n.s.a. (blue), seasonally adjusted…
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