Economy
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Six Estimates of Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Early Benchmark suggests a downturn, as does QCEW, Powell conjecture: Figure 1: Official nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment (blue) ,implied preliminary…
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The Year in Review, 2025: I wanted lower prices, and all I got is this lousy hole in the ground
Here are some of the most ridiculous (and tragic) events of 2025, in economic or economic policy terms. …
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Guest Contribution: “Why didn’t Trump’s tariffs crash the economy in 2025?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a…
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The PRC’s Intimidation Campaign | Econbrowser
Chinese forces are conducting a massive military exercise in the areas surrounding Taiwan — a major economic power and supplier…
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Corporate Profit Peaks and Business Cycle Peaks
Unsurprisingly, the former leads the latter, but the lag is (highly) variable. Figure 1: Real pretax corporate profits for nonfinancial…
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2025Q3 4.3% q/q AR Growth in Context
GDP growth of 4.3% far exceeded the 3.3% consensus forecast. However, as a survivor of the 2001 “is it or…
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EJ Antoni: “The truth about the Heritage Foundation’s economic principles”
EJ Antoni writes a letter to WaPo editors: “that the Heritage Foundation has become a protectionist bivouac. Au contraire, Heritage…
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A Holiday Memo: NBER BCDC and Alternative Indicators
With a surprising outcome in GDP [Hamilton/Econbrowser] [Chinn/Econbrowser], recall that other indicators are relevant, particularly given the record of GDP…
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More on the GDP Release: Compare against “Core GDP” and GDO
Following up on Jim’s post yesterday, here are some additional thoughts on the “initial” (consolidated advance and 2nd) release: (1)…
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Good news from the GDP report
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 4.3% annual rate in…
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