Economy
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Copper, Bolsonaro (Coffee): Predict Trade Policy Uncertainty for 7/10
Here’s the data through 7/9: Figure 1: EPU-trade category (blue, left scale), and Trade Policy Uncertainty index (red, right scale).…
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GDP Impact of 87.5K Removals/Yr
From Orrenius et al. (2025), GDP growth is down 0.81% in 2026, 0.49% in 2027. These estimates based on a…
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When “Liberation Day” Replaces “Infrastructure Week” Replaces “Groundhog Day” ™…
Trump on TruthSocial (Bloomberg): “TARIFFS WILL START BEING PAID ON AUGUST 1, 2025. There has been no change to this…
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Business Fixed Investment ex-IIP and Policy Uncertainty
A picture (or two) is worth a thousand words: Figure 1: Sum of nonresidential equipment and structures investment, bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR…
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Real Time Civilian Employment past Peak?
There’s a view that civilian employment (household series) peaks before nonfarm payroll employment (establishment series). If true, then time for…
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The Age of Angst? Macro Implications
Source: NYT, July 6, 2025. The OBBB alters the path of deficits relative to current law by a substantial amount,…
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Manufacturing Employment, Hours Down | Econbrowser
So the sector overall looks like it’s in the doldrums: Figure 1: Manufacturing production (blue), value added in 2017$ (red),…
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Trade Policy Uncertainty before July 9
Measured trade policy uncertainty, from Baker, Bloom and Davis, and Caldara, Iacoviello, Molligo, Prestipino, and Raffo: Figure 1: EPU-trade category (blue,…
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Central Bank Gold Holdings | Econbrowser
A World Gold Council headline “Central bank gold buying picks up in May”. Global central banks bought a net 20t…
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Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers Nowcasts Decelerate
Atlanta Fed downgrades Q2 (GS ups from 0): Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), GDPNow of…
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