Economy
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Fed More Likely to Stay Pat?
CME FedWatch indicates staying put next meeting, rises by nearly 5 percentage points; staying at current rate rises at the…
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Geopolitical, Financial Risk and Economic Policy Uncertainty
Up for geopolitical risk, not for financial. Figure 1: Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index (blue), 7 day centered moving average (red).…
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Oil Jumps 13%
Tensions in the Mideast cause a spike. One hour into futures trading: Source link
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One of These Is Not Like the Others: Employment
What to expect in the February release. Figure 1: Official BLS nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), official BLS private nonfarm…
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The Economy: When We Last Entered a Land War on the Asian Mainland
Employment fell as EPU rose; production stalls as Geopolitical Risk spiked. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, 000’s (blue, left log…
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Core PCE Instantaneous Inflation at 3.6% in January, Same in February?
Using the Cleveland Fed nowcast for February, y/y inflation will be 3%, instantaneous at 3.2%, 3.6% instantaneous using Goldman Sachs…
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Interpreting the Shrinking Term Spread
At high frequency, the 10yr-3mo and 10yr-Fed funds spreads are shrinking: What to think of this? Typically, we decompose the…
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Alternative Estimates of Q4 Output
GDO and GDP+. Figure 1: GDP advance (bold blue), GDP+ (red), GDO estimate (green), all Q/Q annualized growth rate, calculated…
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News-Based Trade Policy Uncertainty Highest since April
So the IEEPA tariffs are gone. Now a hodge podge of indefinitely-lived tariffs lives on, with uncertainty elevated. Figure 1:…
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Confidence and Sentiment: February 2026
With the release of the Conference Board’s Confidence Index, and the SF Fed’s News Sentiment Index, we have the following…
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