Economy
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Fed Governor/CEA Chair (on leave) Miran: “Fed Risks Recession Without More Interest Rate Cuts”
From Bloomberg: “If we don’t adjust policy down, then I think that we do run risks,” Miran said during an…
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On the Eve of the GDP Release: Forecasts, Nowcasts, Tracking
A survey: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow of 12/16 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast of 12/19 (red line),…
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Chief Economist and Now Actg Director, Ctr Data Analysis, Heritage; & Chief Economist, Truflation
That’s EJ Antoni, who has not a single peer-reviewed paper. Dr. Antoni’s replacement of the previous Center for Data Analysis…
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How’s Sector Employment Doing during This Promised Manufacturing “Golden Age”
A compilation: Figure 1: Official BLS manufacturing employment (blue, left log scale), implied BLS preliminary benchmark (tan, left scale), Powell…
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The Man Who Would Be Commissioner*
Of the BLS, that is. From EJ Antoni writing in Heritage: The mainstream media was predictably quick to denounce the…
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Republican Sentiment: “The Sun’ll Come Out, Tomorrow”
From the December U.Michigan Survey of Consumers: Figure 1: U.Michigan Survey of Consumers Consumer Expectations, Overall (bold black), Democratic/lean Democratic…
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Mysteries of the CPI Release
Numerous commentators have noted anomalies in the latest CPI release. Smith/Bloomberg quotes “Lost in Translation,” according to TD Securities. “Delayed…
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A Conjectured Sahm Index for November
The November unemployment rate came in at 4.6% v. 4.5% Bloomberg consensus. What does the Sahm rule say about whether…
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Real Retail Sales Down, Again
From the retail sales release, nominal retail sales in October constant vs. +0.1% m/m Bloomberg consensus. In real terms, they’re…
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The Employment Picture: We’d Better Hope the Powell Conjecture Is Wrong
NFP and private NFP upside surprise +64K v +50K Bloomberg, +69K v +45K Bloomberg. According to official data as well…
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