Economy
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Confidence and Sentiment: February 2026
With the release of the Conference Board’s Confidence Index, and the SF Fed’s News Sentiment Index, we have the following…
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Business Cycle Indicators: GDP, Personal Income, Mfg & Trade Industry Sales, Consumption
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) key variables: Figure 1: Implied NFP preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), post-benchmark NFP (bold blue),…
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Section 122 Implementation in Context
CRS via Bloomberg, various trade authorities. Mr. Trump has invoked Section 122. Here’s the actual text: Source. Other commentary on…
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On the Q4 Advance Release: GDP vs. “Core GDP” and Residential Investment
Yesterday, Jim moved the Econbrowser Little Econ Watcher’s countenance to neutral 😐, based primarily on Q3 growth, using the methodology…
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Where’s the Balance of Payments Emergency?
Section 122, invoked to place 10% tariffs, was written primarily to address balance payments issues under fixed exchange rates. By…
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GDP continues to grow | Econbrowser
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.4% annual rate in…
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On the Eve of the 2025Q4 Advance Release
Jim will have examination of the GDP numbers tomorrow, but here is the picture as of today, in the wake…
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Is Housing the Business Cycle (in 2026)?
Most indicators suggest growth in output, spending aggregates (while employment is trending sideways). Housing is suggested as a leading indicator…
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2025 Trade Deficit at 2024 Levels
Total seasonally adjusted trade deficit averaged $75.1 mn, vs. 2024 $75.3 mn. The real goods trade deficit averaged $99.8 mn…
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Business Cycle Indicators: Output Surges ahead of Employment
Industrial and manufacturing production rise, surprising on the upside: Figure 1: Implied NFP preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), post-benchmark NFP (bold…
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