Economy
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Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers Nowcasts Decelerate
Atlanta Fed downgrades Q2 (GS ups from 0): Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), GDPNow of…
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Business Cycle Indicators – June Employment Release and May Monthly GDP
June NFP beats consensus on the back of education and health services employment, while private NFP surprises downside. With S&P…
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Private NFP Downside Surprise | Econbrowser
+74K vs. +110K Bloomberg consensus. My nowcast based on ADP suggested +66K. Figure 1: Private NFP, May release (black), June…
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ADP Below Consensus – What Does It Mean?
ADP private NFP change came in at -33K, vs. +99K Bloomberg consensus. It’s well known that the ADP series is…
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The Return (Again) of Supply Side Economics – CEA Edition
From CRFB on 6/25 “CEA’s Fantastical Economic Assumptions”: Source link
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You Daily Reminder: Prices of Import Competing Goods Rise with Tariffed Imported Goods Prices
As per basic analysis of tariffs. Data through June 26(!). Source: Cavallo et al. June 30, 2025. Source link
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June FT-Booth Macro Survey: GDP level same as March Survey
Survey results here, FT article . GDP level more optimistic than May SPF. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth June…
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Policy Uncertainty Spikes
As of today: Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), 7 day centered moving average (red, left scale), VIX (green right…
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Nowcasts and Tracking of “Core GDP”
Various observers have argued for final sales to private domestic purchasers as the best measure of economic momentum. Nowcasts and…
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Gold: The Challenger to Dollar Reserves?
There’s not much data on individual central bank holdings of the dollar through 2023, but COFER goes through 2024Q4, and…
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