Economy

Policy Uncertainty Spikes

As of today: Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), 7 day centered moving average (red, left scale), VIX (green right…

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Nowcasts and Tracking of “Core GDP”

Various observers have argued for final sales to private domestic purchasers as the best measure of economic momentum. Nowcasts and…

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Gold: The Challenger to Dollar Reserves?

There’s not much data on individual central bank holdings of the dollar through 2023, but COFER goes through 2024Q4, and…

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CEA Unleashed! | Econbrowser

From reputable studies, that is. CEA concludes in its report on the OBBB: $1.3 to $3.7 trillion in additional offsetting…

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“That Drop in Consumer Income in May Was a False Recession Alarm”

That’s the title of an article from yesterday. Maybe, but the drop in consumption spending might be. Also, personal income…

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Dollar Decline and Incipient Inflationary Pressures

Trump has indicated his desire for a weaker dollar. It looks like he’s getting it. Figure 1: Fed broad dollar…

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GDP Nowcast Dispersion plus Slowing Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers

From GDP Q1 3rd release and nowcasts plus tracking. GDPNow is down on personal income and spending release, advanced economic…

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Business Cycle Indicators: The Slowdown Cometh?

Personal income, consumption both down in May, with today’s release. Industrial production, civilian employment in NFP concept down from previous…

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Manufacturing Value Added Flat | Econbrowser

So much for a manufacturing renaissance, post-“Liberation Day”. Figure 1: Manufacturing production (blue), value added in 2017$ (red), employment (tan),…

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Bob McCauley: “Downgrading Uncle Sam, not America”

In McCauley’s VoxEU post (first of three), he presents a pictorial depiction of exorbitant privilege: As McCauley notes: While the…

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