Economy
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Strait of Hormuz De Facto Closure
Polymarket (8pm CT 3/6) reads 97% probability of closure by 3/31, as defined by the contract as an 80% reduction…
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Alternative Business Cycle Indictors | Econbrowser
Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept is diving (after retroactive application of 2026 population controls to January 2026 data), as…
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Downward Moves in Employment Paths: Beware the Population Controls and B/D Model
The new birth/death model has been in for two months; the new population controls were retroactively applied to January (usually,…
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NBER BCDC Business Cycle Indicators: Employment and Output Continue to Diverge
A slight recasting of outlook: Figure 1: Implied NFP preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), post-benchmark NFP (bold blue), civilian employment with…
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Closing the Strait of Hormuz?
What’s the betting on closure by March 31? According to Polymarket, it’s 82% right now… Source: Polymarket, 5 March 2026,…
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Will Consumer Sentiment Take a Hit?
It’s already quite low: Figure 1: U.Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence Rate (green), all…
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Betting on US Troops in Iran by Year’s End: 59%
From Polymarket just now: Source: Polymarket accessed 4 March 2026, 4:30pm CT. Previous spike to $62 due to “whatever it…
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Betting on Gasoline Prices: $3.50/gal. by Month’s End
Kalshi reports just now: Source: Kalshi, accessed 4 March 2026, 3pm CT. If you are wary of prediction markets (who…
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Oil Prices: Level or Change?
Talking about the Iran war in macro class yesterday, a student asked if the oil price increase seen to date…
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On Day 5 of War, EPU and GPR Spiked
Somewhat surprisingly, VIX remains relatively low. Source link
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